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Generative AI expectations overblown for mainframe replacement, many projects seen failing

Generative AI’s role is being overly overestimated in modernisation projects pursued by large organisations aiming to phase out mainframes, some say. Gartner forecast many mainframe retirement initiatives launched in 2026 will fail to deliver expected early results, citing unrealistic expectations that AI can replace complex legacy environments quickly and reliably. It warned vendor hype could raise costs, threaten business process continuity and create long-term disruption and new technical debt.