[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin has fallen since the start of the month and is running about 10 percentage points behind its average October track in past years.

On Oct. 16 (all times local), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that bitcoin was 3.2 percent below its Oct. 1 opening price as of Oct. 15.

On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant said bitcoin rose an average of 6.7 percent as of Oct. 15 from 2013 to 2025, with a median gain of 3.8 percent. This year, it posted minus 3.2 percent, about 10 percentage points below the historical average path.

Bitcoin started Oct. 1 at $83,576 and rose 2 to 3 percent at one point in the first week. On Oct. 10, its monthly return turned negative, and the decline continued through Oct. 15. As of Oct. 15, bitcoin was about $80,867. It then edged up to around $82,100 on Oct. 16, narrowing its month-to-date decline to about 1.8 percent.

October has generally been a strong month for bitcoin. From 2013 to 2025, it finished higher in 10 out of 13 Octobers, with an average monthly return of about 19.1 percent. Annual swings were large, ranging from a 53.8 percent rise in 2013 to an 11.6 percent fall in 2014.

The closest mid-month pattern to this year was in 2022. Bitcoin rose in early October, peaked around Oct. 5, turned weak around Oct. 8 and then moved sideways for about two weeks. After Oct. 25, it rebounded and climbed to 5.9 percent above the start of the month, based on its Oct. 31 opening price.

In 2023, the gain was limited to around 5 percent through Oct. 19, then it rose sharply later in the month to finish up 27.9 percent based on its Oct. 31 opening price. In 2018, weakness persisted into the second half and October ended with a drop of about 4.7 percent. That means mid-month weakness alone did not determine the end-of-October outcome.

The short-term price structure is also a factor. CryptoQuant pointed to an area near $80,400 as a nearby trendline support after bitcoin broke below a rising wedge pattern on the 7-day chart. During the Oct. 15 decline, bitcoin approached that area and then climbed back above $82,000.

If it holds $80,400, a pullback toward the broken wedge support line is possible, but that area could now act as a short-term resistance. If a break below that support is confirmed on the 4-hour chart, market focus could shift to the next support zones near $77,000 and $73,500. In the event of further declines, $70,000 and $64,000 are also cited as deeper support areas.

Late October is expected to be a turning point for this year's trend. Bitcoin is currently underperforming both October's average and median. The key question is which path it will follow in the remaining period: a 2022-style late rebound, a 2023-style accelerated rise, or a 2018-style weak finish.

Bitcoin Tests $80.4K Support as October Lags History “The line in the sand is the support trendline currently near $80.4K.” – By @coinjuicehq https://t.co/GhcIvSTsdr