Grayscale has raised the possibility that bitcoin may have hit its bottom earlier than the timing implied by the traditional four-year cycle. Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl said bitcoin is becoming a mature asset and is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic variables, including the Federal Reserve\'s rate decisions. He said bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Fed does not raise rates and economic growth holds. Regulatory uncertainty remains a risk.

Analysis has raised the possibility that Bitcoin has already passed its bottom, though a halving-based four-year cycle still leaves room for a new low in September to October. Grayscale Investments research head Zach Pandl set out two ways to view the downturn: the halving cycle and macroeconomic trends such as interest rates. He said the key variable ahead is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path, while spot Bitcoin ETFs logged six straight sessions of net inflows.