An analysis said bitcoin prices are likely to maintain their upward trend without a major shift in direction even after a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike.

On Sept. 17, local time, blockchain outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported that Grayscale's cryptocurrency research team expected the impact of the hike on bitcoin prices to be limited.

Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl (잭 팬들) judged the move as a "mid-cycle adjustment" rather than a cycle change. He said one or two rate hikes expected in 2026 would not create a major change in capital allocation.

Markets have typically shown that demand for risky assets such as bitcoin grows in a low-rate environment. When rates are low, liquidity increases and investors have more room to take on higher risk. By contrast, there have been cases in which bitcoin prices weakened when the Fed raised borrowing costs.

Pandl referred to 2022, when the Fed increased the pace of rate hikes to curb inflation, and pointed out that it likely weighed on bitcoin prices at the time. He explained that the policy then had a significant effect on the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not pay interest.

Grayscale said the current situation is closer to 1997 than to 2022. Pandl noted that the Fed raised rates once then but the Nasdaq continued to rise, and he saw the latest move as difficult to view as a structural shift toward tightening.

Price action also aligns with that view. Bitcoin recently traded around $76,581 and is up 18 percent over the past 30 days. In August, news that the U.S. Treasury would at least double the size of its buyback operations to support liquidity helped support prices.

The macro environment remains mixed. In the United States, pressure on prices continues amid a cost-of-living burden and rising oil prices. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Sept. 16 that policy is focused on curbing inflation, adding: "The clear fact is that inflation is too high right now, and that state has lasted too long."

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued for the need to cut rates. He said on Sept. 16 on his social media that U.S. interest rates should be 1 percent or lower.

As a result, market attention is focused on whether the Fed's hike will remain a one-off adjustment, or whether signals of additional hikes in 2026 will change actual money flows. For now, the key question is whether bitcoin can absorb the short-term shock and continue its existing upward trend, as Grayscale expects.