[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Asset manager Grayscale judged that bitcoin has already formed a low.

On April 22 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Grayscale said bitcoin hit a bear-market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, and that recent moves show early signals of a bull market.

The key basis is realised price, an on-chain indicator. It is the average purchase price when coins last moved on-chain and is used as a figure close to the market-wide average break-even level. Grayscale estimated the realised price of bitcoin that changed hands over the past 1 to 3 months at about $74,000. With the current price just below that level, it judged that many recent buyers have recovered to around break-even.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl (잭 판들) explained that bitcoin has rebounded more than 20 percent from a low of about $63,000 on Feb. 5, bringing recent buyers back to around break-even. He said if bitcoin rises for a few more days, recent buyers could move into profit, and that could be a signal of the first stage of a bull market.

They noted that bitcoin remains below its high from October last year, but that many recent buyers have moved close to break-even again or recovered it. The report also analysed that bitcoin may have formed a sustainable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. It interpreted the February rebound as possibly not a temporary recovery, but a recovery that emerged after selling pressure was largely resolved.

Not everyone in the broader market agrees with that outlook. Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬), chief executive of IntoTheCryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, said he sees the low point in this cycle as October 2026. He said bitcoin could form a low earlier in May, but that would require capitulation well above typical levels to come first.

Joao Wedson (주앙 웨드슨), CEO of Alphractal, also took a similar view. He expected the bitcoin low to form in late September 2026 or early October, and CryptoQuant presented a broader range. It put the possible window at June to December 2026, and pointed to September to November as the most likely period.

As a result, the market is moving around two scenarios. If the sharp February drop was the final capitulation of this cycle, recent buyers may already have entered the early stages of a new bull market. If further declines remain, bitcoin could again confirm a clearer bottom in the second half of 2026.

The key is how profit and loss for recent buyers changes. Grayscale saw that once bitcoin starts to trade above realised price, the shift of new buying into profit could accelerate. Other analysts, citing historical cycles and midterm-election-year patterns, see room for further declines. Whether bitcoin's rebound leads to a trend reversal or remains a temporary recovery will depend on whether prices can stably rise above the average purchase price of recent buyers.