The implied probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act being enacted in 2026 rose to 73 percent on prediction market Polymarket.

BeInCrypto reported on May 11 that the figure is up sharply from 46 percent in early May, which is seen as reflecting rising expectations ahead of a Senate Banking Committee review scheduled for May 14.

The next turning point for the bill is a Senate Banking Committee meeting on May 14 at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington. The committee is set to review the CLARITY Act. The bill passed the House last July but Senate discussions had stalled. The review has put it back on a full legislative track.

Market participants are watching because the review effectively marks a restart that could lead to the White House’s goal of a July 4 signing. Reporter Eleanor Terrett confirmed that a draft of the bill was distributed to some industry officials ahead of a vote. How the Senate Banking Committee approaches revisions could affect the speed of the legislative process.

Late-stage sticking points remain. Banking industry trade groups are seeking additional changes to a revenue-related compromise mediated by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The adjustment would more strictly limit how stablecoin issuers provide compensation to holders.

The bill’s impact spans the industry. Grayscale said the CLARITY Act would set clearer regulatory standards and affect nearly every segment of the digital asset industry. Zach Pandl (잭 판들), Grayscale’s head of research, said the bill could replace uncertainty with structure and provide a long-awaited legal framework for assets and regulation for developers, companies and investors.

He also said, "The CLARITY Act can promote the next stage of innovation and capital formation in digital assets." The comment reflects an industry view that the bill could affect not only regulatory alignment but also participation standards and conditions for capital inflows.

In this situation, the May 14 vote is expected to be a test of whether the Senate can meet its July target deadline. The surge in Polymarket odds reflects the same expectations, but committee review and coordination over amendments remain in the legislative process, leaving the outcome dependent on the Senate’s judgment.

The review will test whether the crypto market structure bill can regain momentum in the Senate. The jump in Polymarket odds shows expectations have grown not only for the bill itself but also for regulatory clarity.

NEW: @BankingGOP Committee markup of the Clarity Act set for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM EST. https://t.co/epKcnYtXmq pic.twitter.com/hRT714JdwN