[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could absorb 5 to 6 percent of XRP’s circulating supply in the short term, a forecast said. With inflows continuing into XRP ETFs, an analysis says they could reach holdings similar to bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) ETFs.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain-focused outlet, reported on June 4 that Grayscale Investments research head Zach Pandl (잭 팬들) made the forecast while appearing on a recent podcast, discussing the growth potential of the XRP ETF market.

Pandl said he expects XRP ETFs to hold about 5 to 6 percent of XRP’s circulating supply over the long term. He said the figure refers to the combined holdings of all XRP ETFs listed on the market, not a single ETF product. He also presented it as an initial estimate rather than an absolute target, adding that it is reachable given the current inflow trend and could expand further depending on future investor demand.

Behind the forecast is continued investor interest in XRP ETFs. Since their launch in the fourth quarter of last year, XRP ETFs have posted cumulative net inflows of about $1.42 billion. By manager, Bitwise drew the most funds with $467.3 million, followed by Canary Capital’s XRPC with $458.0 million and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ with $392.18 million. Grayscale’s GXRP was also tallied at $129.0 million in net inflows.

Recent XRP price adjustments have partly reduced the size of ETF net assets. Total net assets for XRP ETFs once topped $1.1 billion, but have now shrunk to about $1.03 billion as XRP fell to around $1.15.

Even so, some assessments say the flow of funds itself remains solid. Pandl said XRP ETFs are maintaining steady inflows while some crypto investment products have seen outflows. Early this week, XRP-related investment products were reported to have recorded the largest inflows among major cryptocurrencies. Over the same period, bitcoin and ether ETFs showed net outflows.

He also cited portfolio diversification as a strength of XRP. While bitcoin and ether often move in similar directions, XRP more often shows a relatively different price pattern, he said, giving investors an additional tool for diversification.

Pandl pointed to the cases of bitcoin and ether ETFs as a comparison for XRP ETF growth. BTC and ETH ETFs now hold about 5 to 6 percent of each asset’s circulating supply. He expects XRP ETFs could also expand to a similar level over time.

By current figures, the XRP spot ETF market is still in the early stages. Total net assets for XRP spot ETFs are about $1.03 billion, only 1.4 percent of XRP’s circulating market value of about $71.2 billion.

If ETFs come to hold 5 to 6 percent of XRP’s circulating supply as Pandl forecast, the situation would change significantly. Based on an XRP circulating supply of about 61.97 billion tokens, ETF holdings could rise to about 3.1 billion to 3.7 billion XRP. At current prices, that would be worth about $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion. The key question for the market is whether XRP ETFs can follow a growth trajectory similar to bitcoin and ether ETFs.

The current scale is still below the target range Pandl set out, but some are raising the possibility that XRP ETFs could form a separate institutional investment market if sustained inflows and differentiated investment demand are confirmed.