An analysis suggested bitcoin may have already formed this cycle’s low around $58,000. On Sept. 18, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that James Check (제임스 체크), founder and chief analyst at Checkonchain, assessed that the market had digested substantial selling pressure through two selloffs.

Bitcoin posted a record high slightly above $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing. That is about 39 percent below the peak. Some traders, citing the past four-year cycle, see a possibility of an additional low in October 2026. Benjamin Cowen also mentioned a possible fourth-quarter bottom based on the cycle’s duration and the U.S. midterm election schedule.

Check viewed bitcoin’s drop to around $60,000 in February this year as “capitulation from price pain.” He said it was a period when investors who bought near the peak sold while accepting large losses. He also pointed to a “capitulation from time pain” around $58,000 in June and July, when prices moved sideways and doubts grew about the chance of a recovery.

He said the difference among $58,000, $59,000 and $60,000 is not large. He explained that the real difference was the six months that separated them. It means prolonged stagnation shook investor sentiment more than the price level.

Check said it is a mistake to align market judgments with the four-year cycle. He said dates from previous cycles alone cannot explain why investor capitulation occurs. He said investors should also look at cost basis, unrealised and realised losses, holder profitability and whether experienced investors are accumulating or distributing. He added that the calendar should be used only as a supplementary indicator to explain context after signals of market exhaustion or capitulation are confirmed.

He said about $300 billion in bitcoin cost basis was concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, and that about 4 million BTC moved from an unrealised-loss zone back into a profit zone during the rebound. He also said long-term holders control about 80 percent of bitcoin wealth, making it more likely they will wait for higher prices rather than sell right after a short-term rebound.

Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl also recently said in an interview that late-June $58,000 likely marked a low. He said this downturn did not produce despair as deep as past bitcoin bear markets, but overheating during the bull market was also relatively weaker, meaning the decline may have been more limited. He also said a pattern in which prices do not fall further even when negative news emerges is generally an oversold signal.

On-chain indicators, however, are mixed. HODL Wave data showed the share of holdings held for one to seven days rose only from 1.97 percent to 2.35 percent from July 1 to 5. Willy Woo interpreted that as an unusually weak response of buy-the-dip activity. In contrast, CryptoQuant data showed short-term holders remained in a partial profit state for 30 consecutive days. That is the longest stretch in 2026 and a pattern also seen in past bitcoin recovery phases.