Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the timing expected under the traditional four-year cycle, a forecast said. Cointelegraph, a blockchain outlet, reported on July 23 that Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl (잭 판들) assessed that as bitcoin becomes established as a mature asset, its price is being more heavily swayed by macroeconomic variables.

Grayscale said that under a typical four-year cycle, bitcoin prices should form a low around September or October, but the actual bottom may have come earlier. In a Wednesday report, Pandl said bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates and economic growth remains intact.

Pandl pointed to macro factors, including the Federal Reserve's rate decisions, as key variables driving bitcoin's price. He also noted that past bitcoin bear markets coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates.

The Fed's next rate decision is scheduled for the 29th. CME Group FedWatch shows the market pricing a 66 percent chance that the Fed will hold rates. That is down from 88 percent a week earlier.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a variable. In a June 26 report, Pandl said that if the Clarity bill does not pass this year, Strategy and other corporate treasury holders could move to deleverage further, and bitcoin prices could then edge lower.

Other analysts see the bottom coming later. Zhang Zhuoer (장줘얼), founder of the Levit mining pool, expected bitcoin's low to form between October and December 2026. He said bitcoin would bottom about six months after mNAV, Strategy's multiple to net asset value, hits a cycle low.