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Crypto

Bitcoin $40,000 drop? On-chain analyst says it is statistically almost unprecedented

On-chain analyst James Check pushed back against market forecasts that bitcoin could fall to $40,000, calling the scenario statistically almost unprecedented. He said such a level would sit at the 0.4th percentile of the historical distribution for daily closes when measured with a mean reversion index that combines key on-chain indicators. Check compared $40,000 under current conditions to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011, while noting probabilities are never zero.

Crypto

Bitcoin fails again to break $80,000 as U.S.-China AI tensions return

Bitcoin traded around the $78,000 level but again failed to break above the key resistance level of $80,000, as renewed tension between the United States and China dented risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The White House stepped up its stance on AI, while on-chain indicators pointed to resistance near $76,800. In derivatives, Deribit’s $80,000 call options held the largest share, with a notional value of $1.78 billion.

Crypto

Bitcoin faces $79,200 test; breakout to set short-term direction

Bitcoin has climbed above $78,000, with the $78,200 and $79,200 areas emerging as key resistance levels that could determine short-term direction. Market watchers are focused on an on-chain “real market mean price” around $78,200 tracked by Checkonchain, and the short-term holder realized price near $79,200. Analysts say failure to clear these levels could prolong the recent range-bound move, while a sustained break above them could strengthen an upward trend.