[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin (BTC) briefly slid to the $63,000 level, sharply dampening investor sentiment. As institutional outflows, rising Treasury yields and defensive positioning in the options market appear at the same time, some in the market are also raising the outlook that bitcoin could fall to the $50,000 level within this year.

On June 4 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan reported that bitcoin fell to the $63,000 range, its lowest level since January this year. The decline over the past week exceeded 16 percent.

The current price is about 45 percent below the record high of more than $120,000 set in October last year. In the market, interpretation is spreading that the drop is not a simple adjustment but a signal of entry into a bear market.

Prediction market data also reflect worsening sentiment. On prediction platform Kalshi, the chance that bitcoin will fall below $60,000 within this year is priced at about 80 percent. That is below the February low of $60,062.

The chance of falling below $50,000 within this year was also tallied at 52 percent. By contrast, the chance that bitcoin will recover $100,000 again stayed at 27 percent. In particular, the outlook is that market expectations have retreated sharply in a month, given that as recently as early May the chance of regaining $100,000 was close to 50 percent.

A similar trend is appearing on Polymarket. Market participants put the chance that bitcoin will set a new record high within this year at about 12 percent. That shows investors are placing more weight on the possibility of further declines than on a short-term rebound.

The macroeconomic environment is also a burden. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is back above 4.45 percent, and the market sees the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates further by year-end at more than 50 percent.

Expectations for rate cuts that once drew attention have effectively disappeared from market scenarios. The dollar index is also holding firm above the 99 level. A high-rate, strong-dollar environment has a negative effect on risky assets, and an assessment is emerging that bitcoin has been taking the biggest hit from these shocks recently.

Institutional flows are also sending a bearish signal. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.2 billion of net outflows over the past three weeks. That is the biggest capital flight so far this year. In the market, analysis is emerging that institutional investors are moving to reduce risk exposure rather than waiting for a price recovery.

A short-term variable is U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. The market view is that if the jobs figure comes in strong, selling pressure could continue, while if it comes in weak, the market could have room to catch its breath.

On-chain indicators are also cited as a burden. Bitcoin is currently staying below the "True Market Mean" at around $77,800. The indicator refers to the average purchase price of actively traded bitcoin, and the market uses it as a baseline to distinguish bull and bear markets.

By contrast, the realized price, which refers to the average purchase price of total circulating supply, is estimated at around $53,900. Bitcoin is positioned between the two indicators, and the market sees a high possibility that the bearish structure will persist as long as it fails to regain the True Market Mean.

The average purchase price for short-term holders is also around $76,400, higher than the current price. That means many investors who entered recently have moved into loss territory.

In derivatives markets, defensive sentiment is strengthening. One-month implied volatility came in at about 42 percent, well above realized volatility of 32 percent. In the options market, put options are trading at higher prices than call options, and hedging demand to brace for downside risk has also increased sharply.

The industry is focusing on the fact that price declines, institutional outflows, rate burdens, on-chain resistance levels and defensive demand in the options market are appearing at the same time.

Market participants see whether bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level as a key variable. If that support level breaks, an outlook is gaining ground that a return to the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.