Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $1.23 billion of net outflows last week, but bitcoin supply held by long-term holders hit a record high.

On May 18, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Bitwise said in a recent report that short-term flows and on-chain indicators were pointing in different directions.

The report said global crypto ETPs saw net outflows of $1.23 billion last week, with more than $1.03 billion leaving bitcoin investment products alone. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led the outflows, with large withdrawals from 21Shares' ARKB, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). That snapped a six-week run of inflows.

As money left crypto investment products broadly, investor sentiment also weakened. The Bitwise crypto sentiment index fell back into neutral from its highest level since May 2025, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned to the "fear" zone.

On-chain indicators showed a different trend. Wallets that have held bitcoin for more than 155 days were estimated to hold about 14.85 million bitcoin, equal to 74.3 percent of circulating supply. When supply shifts from short-term participants to long-term holders, the amount available for trading in the market tends to shrink. Bitwise said such redistribution is often observed in the late stages of a bear market.

Bitcoin's sell-side risk ratio also fell to one of the lowest levels on record. Bitwise said such low-liquidity periods could lead to bigger volatility when demand recovers.

The price range was also presented as a key variable. Bitcoin is trading in a key band of $76,000 to $80,000. That range overlaps with the short-term holder realized price of about $78,300 and the short-term holder cost basis of about $78,600. By contrast, the 200-day moving average of $81,800 is acting as upper resistance. Bitcoin tried to regain that level last week but slipped again amid higher-than-expected inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market trading remains sluggish, but Bitwise said the possibility of forming a longer-term bottom over the next 1 to 2 months remains open. It judged that despite short-term outflows and weaker sentiment, sellable supply is shrinking.

The macro environment was also cited as a variable to watch. Rising Japanese government bond yields and a weaker yen are raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's national debt. Japan's 30-year government bond yield recently hit a record high, and the 10-year yield rose to its highest level since the late 1990s. Markets are warning that continued pressure in Japan's bond market could raise the likelihood of central bank intervention.

U.S. political and regulatory variables were also cited as factors that could shape the market's next direction. Kevin Warsh has come in as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Clarity bill has recently passed the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support. Bitcoin's next price direction could change depending on how these factors affect sentiment.

$1.23B ETP outflows, bitcoin long-term holder supply at record highs, and why JGB market stress could trigger the next BTC rally. Discover more in our latest Crypto Market Compass below pic.twitter.com/DN6IuOeEzp