A forecast has emerged that bitcoin could rise to an average of $500,000 and as high as $1 million in this halving cycle.

U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on Wednesday that on-chain analyst PlanB set a bitcoin price range of $250,000 to $1 million for the current cycle and put the average target level at around $500,000.

The key rationale is bitcoin’s mathematical cycle structure tied to halving. PlanB said it has been slightly more than halfway through the current cycle since the latest halving in April 2024, with 639 days left until the end of the current epoch. The market has recently cooled, but he judged that temporary corrections should not be confused with the end of the cycle.

PlanB did not view a previously recorded local peak of $126,000 as the top of this four-year cycle. He argued that the time when prices begin to rise in earnest toward the S2F model target zone could be between 2026 and 2028. He added that the model is not a tool to predict an exact top or a short-term bottom, but indicates an average price range that rises with scarcity.

He also left open the possibility of additional declines in the short term. PlanB acknowledged bitcoin could set a new local low in the near term. He explained that in every past bear market, prices have fallen below the realized price, meaning the average purchase price of all coins in the market, and that this realized price is currently around $53,000.

He also stressed that worsening market sentiment could instead become the starting point for the next upswing. PlanB said bitcoin often enters a new growth phase when disappointment and panic selling spread among retail investors. He also presented a scenario in which, if the market becomes convinced of a prolonged slump, a sharp rally toward the $500,000 to $1 million zone could inflict "maximum pain" on skeptics and short sellers.

Ultimately, PlanB's message to the market was that the long-term trend has not yet broken. He said the key phase of supply shortage has not yet arrived, and offered investors advice summed up in one word. It was "patience."

The forecast shows a view that the halving-based long-term cycle remains valid even during the recent correction. But PlanB himself also mentioned short-term volatility and the possibility of further lows, so the report said the focus of the forecast is on the remaining time after the halving and changes in supply structure rather than short-term price predictions.