[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP is nearing a key moving-average death cross on a weekly basis, entering a turning point for its future price path.

On July 6 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP is nearing a signal in which the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) drops below the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

A death cross is a bearish signal that appears when a short-term moving average falls below a long-term moving average. The crossover has not occurred yet, but the gap between the two indicators is narrowing quickly. The 20-week EMA is continuing to fall to $1.34, while the 200-week SMA has risen to $1.209, maintaining a gentle upward trend.

The two indicators have moved in opposite directions since October 2025. The 200-week line has risen slowly but steadily since late 2024, while the 20-week line rose from November 2024 before turning lower after XRP hit a peak of $2.77 on Oct. 2, 2025. If this trend continues, a weekly death cross will form as the 20-week line falls below the 200-week line.

If confirmed, it would be the first such signal since November 2024. At that time, a golden cross appeared instead, overlapping with a market rally period that coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump's election victory. What the market is watching now is whether the death cross becomes the start of further declines or is closer to a signal near a bottom.

Typically, a death cross means selling pressure is intensifying. When the signal appears, sellers can gain greater control and it can show the downtrend is not over yet. In some phases, however, the signal has also appeared near market bottoms.

A representative comparison is 2022. XRP fell to $0.28 in June 2022 and then attempted a rebound, and even after the death cross formed it slipped slightly further to around $0.31 around the third quarter. The market then stabilized, but rather than a strong upswing it moved sideways for an extended period, and a full-fledged bull market did not begin until November 2024.

A similar crossover also appeared in October 2019, after which XRP fell for several more months and slid to $0.1140 in March 2020. It took about 5 months for the market to confirm a bottom. Some view this as an exceptional case because it overlapped with the sharp drop in March 2020 stemming from the COVID-19 crisis.

The next major support zone market participants are watching is $0.8 to $0.9. The on-chain indicator, the UTXO realized price distribution, also supports this. Below the $1.06 support line, the area around $0.8, where about 923 million XRP traded, was presented as the next strong support.

With XRP currently at $1.13, a drop to the $0.8 to $0.9 zone would imply a decline of about 20 to 29 percent. Whether it actually falls that far, or stabilizes before then, will depend on how the market reacts to the possibility of a weekly death cross.