[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Retail investor demand in the bitcoin market has fallen to its weakest level this year, while whale accumulation is showing its strongest signal in 18 months.

On May 25 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that the number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC stood at 1,282 as of May 22, matching the year’s high recorded on May 3.

The key point is that retail and whale flows are moving in opposite directions. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said bitcoin’s apparent demand fell to about minus 147,000 BTC. That is the weakest reading since December 2025. Darkfost pointed out that periods when demand drops sharply and pessimism becomes excessive have historically been opportunities for patient investors.

Retail sentiment is freezing quickly. The crypto fear and greed index stayed at 28, in fear territory. In this backdrop, Alphractal’s “whale versus retail delta” indicator showed the widest gap since November 2024. Over the past 14 days, addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC accumulated an additional 47,000 BTC.

Buying by institutions and large holders also continued. Strategy bought an additional 24,869 BTC last week at an average of $80,985. A whale address that had been dormant since 2013 also moved 500 BTC for the first time in 12 years. Alphractal described the current market by saying, “Retail is in panic, while whale indicators have recorded the widest gap since November 2024.”

Holding sentiment indicators also rose to levels similar to past bullish phases. Alphractal’s holder sentiment indicator came in at 0.82. The last time it reached 0.80 in an environment where the fear index was below 30 was in March 2024. At that time, bitcoin rose 67% over the following 90 days.

From a supply-demand perspective, the price level drawing market attention is $78,258. Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution indicator showed about 415,534 BTC last traded in this range. With supply equivalent to 2.07% of total outstanding concentrated there, it is cited as the first major resistance level above the current price. If the price breaks above this level, previously dormant supply could turn into support, potentially reducing selling pressure at higher levels.

The price chart also aligns with this resistance level. Bitcoin was trading at $77,250 as of May 25, and an early-stage inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the 12-hour chart. It made a low at $74,177 on May 22 and is moving to form the right shoulder area. If it pulls back once near the neckline around $78,125 and forms a higher low, the pattern could move toward completion.

After that, the pattern would be confirmed if a 12-hour candle closes above $78,125 and cleanly breaks above $79,057. In that case, the target price was presented as $82,073. By contrast, if it falls below $74,177, the current pattern and whale accumulation scenario could lose strength. Even if it rises straight from $78,125 without a pullback, the pattern itself would not be invalidated, and only the neckline level could move higher.

The market is focusing on the point that a recovery in spot demand ultimately needs to be confirmed for whale accumulation to lead to an actual price breakout. Current on-chain indicators and price structure show whales building positions pre-emptively amid fear, but the near-term focus has emerged as whether buying momentum will build enough to clear the supply-congested zone around $78,258.

Bitcoin Demand has fallen to Its most Bearish level of the year Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has just reached its most negative level since the beginning of the year. With an estimate now approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find market sentiment… pic.twitter.com/TQyM8m8LXu