Bitcoin has failed to climb out of losses for more than 800 days after its fourth halving when measured from purchases made on halving day, prompting an assessment that this cycle is the worst on record.

As of June 30 local time, blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported bitcoin was priced at about $59,400, below about $64,000 at the time of the fourth halving on April 19, 2024.

That means investors who bought bitcoin on halving day are still sitting on paper losses. That contrasts with previous halving cycles, when investors had already moved into gains by the same point. Bitcoin has also fallen about 53 percent from its record high of $126,000 set in October last year, adding to concerns about the sluggish cycle.

Some analysis says it is not appropriate to directly compare this cycle with the past based only on the halving-day price. This rally saw large price gains as institutional money flowed in before the halving. Bitcoin had already marked a then-record high of $73,800 in March 2024, more than a month before the halving. Unlike past cycles where a full-fledged rise followed the halving, the timing of the rise itself came earlier this time.

A U.S. spot bitcoin ETF sits behind the shift. Spot ETFs launched in January 2024 pulled large institutional funds into the market before supply fell due to the halving. By halving day, cumulative net inflows into ETFs totaled about $12.3 billion. With institutions buying ahead of time reflected in prices before expectations of reduced supply, analysis says the halving itself carried less meaning than before.

Markets also look at realized price to reduce such distortion. Realized price is the average purchase price calculated based on the price when circulating bitcoin last moved on-chain. Because it reflects participants' actual average cost basis more than short-term price swings, it is often used to compare long-term cycles.

Bitcoin's realized price is currently about $53,197. The spot price is holding about 10 percent above that, a level similar to what appeared at past bear-market bottoms.

The issue is that even on a realized-price basis, the strength of this cycle has been weaker than before. In the 2013, 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the market price stood well above realized price as speculative buying concentrated. In this cycle, even when bitcoin hit a record high last year, the gap between market price and realized price did not widen as much as in the past.

That is seen as because this bull run unfolded through steady, institution-led inflows via spot ETFs rather than speculative buying by retail investors. Rapid price overheating eased, but there was also no explosive surge as in the past.

The market sees it as too early to deliver a final verdict on this cycle. Still, Decrypt said on-chain data commonly show that even when comparing not only the halving-day price but also realized price, this bitcoin cycle has been relatively weaker than previous halving phases.