[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] An on-chain analysis has put bitcoin's high-probability bottom zone at around $46,000 to $54,000. The analyst stressed that it presents a high-probability support range based on past cycles and on-chain data, rather than defining a specific price as the bottom.

On June 8 local time, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that Raphael Schultze-Kraft (라파엘 슐츠-크래프트), co-founder of on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, released an analysis of key support and resistance levels for the bitcoin market based on the firm's data.

Raphael explained that bitcoin is currently at around $62,000, down about 50% from its record high. He said, "A bottom is not a price you can specify in advance. It should be approached as a range and a probability, and as a criterion for judging changes in market phase."

The area he focused on most was the $46,000 to $54,000 range. Around $46,000 sits CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed), a 대표적인 on-chain bottom indicator for bitcoin, and around $54,000 is where the realized price is formed. He explained that the two indicators have served as strong support levels across several past market cycles. Raphael assessed the price range as "the most likely bottom zone."

The market is currently trading at higher levels. Bitcoin has been moving around the central realized price of about $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of about $61,700. Among market participants, whether it can hold this zone as support is seen as a key variable for the short-term direction.

He also presented a more pessimistic scenario. Raphael described the $35,000 to $40,000 range as the area indicated by the balanced price and the delta price, and classified it as an extreme downside scenario close to capitulation selling.

He assessed that, based on past data, trading days that reached the range accounted for less than 3% of the total. That means the possibility cannot be completely ruled out, but it is a relatively low-probability scenario by current standards.

There was also an assessment that the scale of the current drop is still limited when compared with past cycles. According to Raphael, previous major bear markets saw declines of 85%, 84% and 77% from the peak. In contrast, bitcoin is currently down about 50% from its record high.

He assessed that as the market matures, a sharp plunge like those in the past may not necessarily be repeated, and that the high-probability bottom for this cycle may also form at a relatively higher price level.

Key resistance levels to watch in a rebound were also presented. Glassnode cited the $75,000 to $79,000 range as the first recovery hurdle. The area is where the short-term holder cost basis, true market mean and the 200-day moving average are concentrated. Raphael explained that if bitcoin regains the level and turns it into support again, it can be interpreted as the first sign of a market recovery.

After that, the 50-week moving average remains as an additional resistance zone. The analysis said a breakout of that zone is also important in judging whether the market has succeeded in a trend reversal beyond a simple technical rebound.

Ultimately, the analysis is meaningful in that it presents probabilistic support and resistance levels that investors can refer to, rather than predicting an absolute bottom for bitcoin.

A key point the market is watching is whether it can defend the low-$60,000 zone where the 200-week moving average and the central realized price are located. It is expected that whether bitcoin can recover the area above $75,000 will be an important turning point that determines the next trend.