Bitcoin is moving sideways around $64,000, with large holders showing divergent behavior. Existing whale investors are taking large profits, while new whales are quietly absorbing supply, an analysis said, pointing to a reshaping of market supply and demand.

On July 15, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC distributed and sold about 67,000 BTC in a single day on July 13. At current prices, that is worth about $4.3 billion, and CryptoQuant assessed it as the strongest selling pressure since February this year.

Over the same period, bitcoin moved between an intraday low of $61,823 and a high of $64,832 and traded around $64,600. Market sentiment was also quiet. Santiment tallied that crypto-related conversations on major platforms such as X, formerly Twitter, Reddit and Telegram fell to the second-lowest daily level since October 2024.

The market silence is seen as closer to a reshaping of supply and demand than a simple drop in interest. While existing whales moved to sell, other on-chain data showed new whale wallets steadily accumulating bitcoin. That suggests a structure in which holdings are shifting from existing owners to new large investors.

The trend shows that outlooks differ even among large investors. Some are reducing exposure at current prices, while others are using the period of reduced public interest as an opportunity to accumulate.

The issue is that institutional money is not absorbing the selling volume sufficiently. According to figures compiled by Farside Investors, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of about $197.4 million over the week of July 6 to 10, but about $424.7 million flowed out in net terms on July 13 alone, reversing the trend.

Glassnode assessed that net ETF flows over the past 30 days are negative, and that average daily trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is down about 80 percent from the October 2025 peak.

The supply-demand gap is clearer. Weekly inflows into ETFs are about 22 times smaller than the whales' one-day selling amount of about $4.3 billion. That means institutional inflows are continuing, but are insufficient to absorb all selling by large investors.

On price, an analysis said it is still too early to confirm a trend reversal. Glassnode said bitcoin has been below both the short-term holder realized price of $72,200 and the True Market Mean of $76,600 for about five months. It explained that the market would need to reclaim those two levels to be judged in a full-fledged rebound phase.

Realized losses by long-term holders also rose to about $280 million a day, the highest level since December 2022. Capitulation selling has progressed to a significant extent, but it is hard to see it as in the final stage, it said.

The macro backdrop is also sending mixed signals. The U.S. Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its June meeting. The consumer price index rose 3.5 percent year-on-year that month, easing from May, but Glassnode pointed to higher oil prices and risk-off sentiment as remaining risk factors.

Liquidity conditions are also mixed. U.S. M2 money supply hit a record $22.8 trillion, but the Fed's balance sheet is about $2 trillion smaller than its 2023 peak. That amounts to expanding market liquidity alongside tight financial conditions.

An analysis said the market's next direction depends on changes in supply and demand. If new whales keep accumulating while selling by existing whales slows, and spot ETFs turn to net inflows for several consecutive weeks, bitcoin could attempt to reclaim $72,200 and $76,600. Citi set a target price of $82,000 under this scenario.

Conversely, if whales keep selling, ETF money turns back to net outflows, and long-term holders expand loss-cutting sales, support in the low $60,000s could also be threatened. Citi lowered its 12-month bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000, reflecting weaker investor demand and delays in U.S. crypto legislation, and also suggested a downside scenario in which it could fall to $53,000.

Ultimately, the key variable in the current bitcoin market is not investor attention itself but who is taking in large holders' supply. Whether new whales' accumulation in a quiet market can absorb existing whales' selling pressure is seen as a key factor in determining the next trend.