U.S. government debt is nearing $40 trillion, and Matt Hougan (맷 호건), chief investment officer at Bitwise, has laid out an investment strategy of holding both artificial intelligence-related stocks and bitcoin. He argued investors should prepare for the possibility that the U.S. economy could take two opposing paths — growth or inflation — as it works through its debt problem.

On Sept. 1, blockchain outlet U.Today reported Hougan as saying AI stocks and bitcoin could play different roles depending on how the U.S. Treasury responds to the debt, and stressing, "Hold both." The argument is based on a premise that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (스콧 베센트) must cut the fiscal deficit while keeping gross domestic product growth at 3 percent or more.

He said the U.S. debt problem could unfold under two scenarios. One is to offset the debt burden by lifting economic growth through productivity gains from AI adoption. The other is to reduce the real value of debt through high inflation without raising growth enough.

◆ AI stocks for a growth scenario, bitcoin for an inflation scenario

In the first scenario, he projected that AI-related companies would benefit. He said rapid productivity gains as AI spreads could increase demand and profits for technology companies such as semiconductors and data centre infrastructure. This year, Micron Technology shares have risen 224.97 percent from the start of the year and AMD has gained 108.80 percent. Broadcom has fallen 25.84 percent over the past three months and CrowdStrike has slipped 7.24 percent over the past week, but Hougan assessed those moves as temporary profit-taking. He said, "If Scott Bessent is right and we get out of this problem through growth, we should hold AI stocks strongly."

By contrast, if economic growth does not accelerate enough, he said bitcoin could serve as a hedge against the debt problem. He said the U.S. could respond by tolerating high inflation to reduce the real value of debt as fiscal deficits and the debt burden persist. Bitcoin struggled in the first half of the year under the impact of tight monetary policy, falling 33 percent from the start of the year through July. In August, as bond market volatility increased, it staged a V-shaped rebound, narrowing the decline to 10.91 percent.

◆ "If you want to win under either scenario, hold both"

Hougan stressed that the two assets can respond to different economic conditions. He said semiconductor-related stocks were strong in the summer when bitcoin fell, and that bitcoin's rebound partially offset investor losses while AI-related stocks were being corrected in late August.

He said, "If Scott Bessent is right and we solve the debt problem through growth, we should hold AI stocks. If Bessent is wrong and we solve the problem through inflation, we should hold bitcoin. If you want to win under either scenario, hold both."

Ultimately, Hougan's strategy is to hold both assets so investors can respond to different macroeconomic scenarios rather than trying to predict the U.S. fiscal situation precisely. The setup is to use AI stocks as an investment tied to productivity gains and economic growth, and bitcoin as an asset to prepare for inflation and risks of a weakening currency value.