Ethereum has neared a key zone that could determine whether it can break out of a weak trend against bitcoin.

On July 5 local time, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that the closely watched ETH/BTC trading pair is moving toward an area where technical buy signals overlap.

The ETH/BTC spot rate is trading around 0.028. The area combines a thick red Ichimoku cloud band with a downtrend line. Market participants see the trend line as a "mega diagonal resistance line". Ethereum was trapped in a descending pitchfork channel from late 2025 through the first half of 2026.

Trader Carpe Noctom said, "On the daily chart, ETH/BTC is nearing a cloud breakout and an ML PF breach." He added, "This one has continued to disappoint for months so I won't be touching until confirmation of breakout." With ETH/BTC having produced rebound signals several times over the past year only to turn down again, the market is prioritising confirmation signals over aggressive entries.

The chart outlook also depends on whether a breakout occurs. If ETH/BTC breaks above the top of the current channel and produces a "full cloud breakout," some expect it could technically open a path to the 0.036 area by late summer. If it fails to break the key resistance line, expectations for a rebound could weaken again.

Work is also under way on a long-term revamp of the Ethereum network itself. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin (비탈릭 부테린) unveiled an updated development blueprint after a high-level research summit held in Berlin two weeks ago. The new roadmap is called "Lean Ethereum."

The roadmap was presented as the third major stage in the evolution of the Ethereum protocol. Buterin set out a direction that the rebuild would be a multi-year overhaul comparable to "The Merge" in the past. According to the official project outline, the four-year upgrade cycle is designed as a schedule to revise nearly all of the protocol's core mechanisms.

The market is watching the short-term possibility of a technical breakout in ETH/BTC as well as whether the long-term restructuring of the network can change Ethereum's trajectory. On the price chart, a break above resistance is a key variable, while on the protocol side, the implementation of "Lean Ethereum" has also emerged as a key factor.

ETH/BTC warming up, nearing a kumo breakout + ML PF breach. mega diag res to watch as well. this one has continued to disappoint for months so i wont be touching until confirmation of breakout. pic.twitter.com/QfytzhF3u8