Bitcoin rose to the $63,500 range, nearing its highest level in 2 weeks.

On July 5 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin moved around $62,700 ahead of the weekly close last week, retesting the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), seen as a long-term trendline.

The rebound came as exchange order books thinned. Buying pressure lifted prices as it coincided with a 3-day U.S. holiday, but the market also saw sell orders near the top. Market analyst Exitpump said passive sell orders pressing on the price at the top looked stronger.

Short-position liquidations were also cited as a factor pushing prices higher during the short-term rise. Crypto Trades pointed out that short liquidations continued as prices rose. Based on Coinglass data, total liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours came to $167 million. He assessed it as a typical short squeeze, with prices slowly rising into a zone where many participants entered short positions and forced liquidations supporting the move.

Caution about early-week trading remains. Trader Killa warned that Bitcoin showed sharp weakness on all of the past 7 Mondays, saying, "Mondays have been absolutely terrible for Bitcoin recently." The rebound continued just before the weekly close, but it means volatility could rise again on Monday.

The macro environment appears to be shifting to be somewhat favorable for risk assets. Trading firm Qivalas drew attention to the possibility that conditions could form that are favorable for cryptocurrencies and risk assets overall. It pointed to the return of net inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a key factor.

U.S. employment data also influenced market expectations. U.S. nonfarm payrolls released last week came in below forecasts, and expectations for hawkish rate hikes by the Federal Reserve weakened somewhat. Qivalas cited a 2 percent jump in gold prices as the clearest dovish signal, but said it was more of a hedge tied to real rates and demand for safe assets than growth expectations.

Rate expectations are also leaning toward a hold rather than an immediate cut. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of the benchmark rate being kept at its current level at the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was close to 80 percent. Qivalas said a favorable consumer price index (CPI) reading would need to come before then for a broader dovish repricing to be confirmed across the market.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has entered a zone where technical resistance and macro expectations intersect. The weekend rebound itself was strong, but the next point to watch is whether prices can hold early in the week given that the rise was driven by thin liquidity and short liquidations.

"7/7 Mondays have been absolutely terrible for $BTC. Will we repeat the exact same pattern next week? Time to f*ck around and find out. If BTC keeps pushing up through Monday, there's a good chance we see a 3 to 4 percent retracement back down. pic.twitter.com/tSqb5rYzrG"