Bitcoin ended trading in late June below its 200-week moving average but above its realised price, raising the possibility of further declines.

On July 2, Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin fell 20.5 percent in June to close at $58,526. It was the weakest monthly performance since June 2022.

The June close was below the 200-week moving average of $62,000 but above the realised price of $52,000. PlanB said all past bear market bottoms formed below the realised price and viewed the current move as a sign the bottom may not be in yet. He forecast bitcoin could fall to $52,000.

PlanB also said the current price is below value but could slip further below the realised price. If bitcoin drops from the record high of $126,000 set in October last year to $52,000, the decline would be about 60 percent.

The realised price is an on-chain indicator that refers to the average purchase price of all coins in circulation. It is calculated using the price when each unspent transaction output last moved on-chain and is used in bear markets as a benchmark for key support levels.

Other analysts were split. Andrei Pauzan Azima (안드리 파우잔 아지마), head of research at Bitrue Research Institute, cited the June close staying above the realised price but below the 200-week moving average and said, based on past cycles, the bear market bottom still lies ahead. He said a capitulation could emerge in late 2026 before the next rally phase.

By contrast, Lacey Zhang (레이시 장), a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, assessed that the current sideways move near $60,000 is getting closer to a potential bottom zone. Even if there is further downside, she said there is a high chance strong historical and technical support will form around $55,000.

Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬), founder of ITC Crypto, said bitcoin could form a cycle low within this year because it is a U.S. midterm election year. He said bear market bottoms also appeared in midterm election years in 2018 and 2022, and the second half of a midterm election year is often an accumulation phase and frequently becomes the market cycle bottom. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3.