Bitcoin jumped after confirmation of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, rising as oil fell below $100 a barrel and risk appetite returned. In New York trading on April 8, bitcoin climbed as much as 7.4 percent to $72,760. Short liquidations also added to gains, with $214.8 million in bitcoin shorts liquidated in 24 hours. Analysts and traders cautioned the market remains fragile and faces resistance around $72,000 to $76,000.

Warnings of further declines in bitcoin are growing after it failed to recover the 200-week exponential moving average, a key technical gauge. Bitcoin trades near $71,000 but could not break above the 200-week EMA around $68,300 over the weekend, limiting any rebound and raising the possibility that a rise to $76,000 was a short-term bull trap. Analysts cite repeated selling at key levels and weakening technical signals, with downside ranges spanning $65,500 to $46,000. Prediction markets also reflect rising odds of a drop below $55,000 by 2026.