Bitcoin has entered a historically undervalued zone on major valuation indicators, but the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and competition for liquidity in the market are limiting buying, an analysis showed.

On June 18, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that asset manager Bitwise assessed bitcoin as remaining in a “severely undervalued” range based on the Mayer Multiple.

Bitwise focused on the Mayer Multiple staying below 1.0. The indicator compares the current price with the 200-day moving average, and readings below 1.0 have in the past coincided with long-term accumulation periods. Bitcoin slid below $63,000 after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but Bitwise viewed the current price range instead as a buying opportunity.

Despite the price appeal, actual inflows are weak. CryptoQuant’s realised market cap growth indicator has remained in a bearish phase since Oct. 30, 2025. The indicator’s 7-day and 59-day moving averages fell from around 70 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 13.9 and 19.1, respectively, on June 17. That means the pace of new capital entering the bitcoin network continues to slow.

Monetary policy is also a burden. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. The market avoided the level of hawkish shock it had feared, but the dot plot showed 9 officials expecting at least one rate hike this year and 6 expecting two or more. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. (악셀 애들러 주니어) pointed out that the market is pricing in a path of higher rates for longer rather than near-term easing.

Market reactions were mixed. Soon after the Fed decision, bitcoin fell as sell volume increased, and the largest trades occurred at the $66,200 resistance level. Crypto Rover mentioned that a new $38.5 million bitcoin short position using 30-times leverage was opened right after the FOMC meeting. By contrast, bitcoin investor Jelle (젤레) interpreted the move from the weekly high of $67,255 to below $63,000 as a retest of support.

Competition for funds across the wider investment market is also growing. Bitwise said the pipeline of large initial public offerings and capital raising is expanding, including potential fundraising linked to SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. Large listings and fundraising can signal strong investment demand, but at the same time they can absorb liquidity that could otherwise flow into equities and cryptocurrencies.

Bitwise said in particular that artificial intelligence-related stocks such as Nvidia are trading at a high premium to long-term trends, while bitcoin is in a relatively low valuation range. But it said that as long as high interest rates persist, capital flowing into speculative assets itself could be limited.

Ultimately, the key point for markets is not whether the undervaluation signal immediately leads to a rebound, but whether bitcoin can attract new funds again even in a tight liquidity environment. Valuation alone makes it difficult to explain a recovery in buying, and the outlook for interest rates and fund flows are increasingly likely to drive the near-term direction.