[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin rebounded to the $74,000 level after the United States began measures to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. On April 13 local time, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin recovered part of its losses along with U.S. stocks.
The market focused on the scope of enforcement rather than the measure itself. The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began at 11 p.m. Korea time on April 13, but relief buying flowed in after analysis suggested it targets only ships traveling to and from Iranian ports and does not restrict navigation by ships entering or departing non-Iranian ports.
Market analysis outlet The Kobeissi Letter said the United States is unlikely to block the free navigation of ships traveling to and from non-Iranian ports. It said that if a blockade of Iranian ports succeeds, most of the region's crude oil export volumes, already constrained, could be cut off. It also warned that U.S. gasoline prices could rise to $4.25 a gallon.
International oil prices also reacted immediately. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $102 a barrel and at one point tested the $100 level again. U.S. stocks, however, recouped most of their drop right after talks collapsed. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both turned higher during the session.
Cryptocurrency markets also saw a relief rebound, but caution dominated over the short-term direction. Trading firm QCP Capital pointed to China’s growing share in this issue. It said China is at the center of events and that because Iranian crude mostly heads east, a blockade, if realized, would directly hit China’s supply chain.
QCP Capital also said actual enforceability matters more than military presence. It said blocking Chinese ships in international waters could trigger a much greater risk of escalation, but the market has yet to price in such an outcome. It added that the market is leaning on a familiar pattern in which actual measures ease even if tensions rise.
Traders drew a line on whether the rebound will lead to a trend reversal. Analyst Jelle said BTC/USD could again draw a failed breakout pattern known as a "Bart Simpson" shape and that $70,500 should be watched. He said a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart also remains valid.
Another trader, Cryptonuevo, said there are not many clear response zones at current price levels. He said there is nothing to do in the middle range and that it is necessary to wait until the price moves to either the top or bottom end of the range this week or next week. He suggested a swing-buy entry zone in the $59,000 to $61,000 range.
In the end, the market appears to be reacting more to the intensity and enforcement scope of the blockade than to the Strait of Hormuz blockade itself. Bitcoin rebounded along with U.S. stocks, but short-term traders are placing more weight on the possibility of a renewed drop than on the size of the rebound. Observers say the next price move depends on whether Middle East tensions spread further and on which direction the price breaks out of the current trading range.
BREAKING: The US Military has officially begun its "blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. The US says the blockade will be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas" 2. US forces will not impede…