[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin is holding a key support line in the $63,000 range, sustaining expectations for a short-term rebound.

On July 20 (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin briefly slid to $63,700 on selling pressure right after the weekly close. It still held above the 200-week simple moving average, a long-term trend line.

Traders focused on short-term moves are watching the defense of recent lows. Trader Jelle, in an analysis on X, predicted an additional rebound this week and pointed to the $65,000 to $67,000 zone. He judged that despite a short-term dip, expectations for a technical rebound remain alive as the lower end of the range has not broken.

On the weekly chart, long-term indicators were cited as important. Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin has posted weekly closes above the 200-week simple moving average, currently around $63,322, for three straight weeks. He saw the need for a strong rise to move back above the weekly 200-week exponential moving average at $68,521 for momentum to truly return.

Not everyone is optimistic. Analyst Roman mentioned bullish divergence across multiple price indicators including the relative strength index (RSI), but Rekt Capital defined 2025 as the peak of this cycle’s bull market and 2026 as a bearish year for Bitcoin. It also presented a calculation that the current bear market is more than 70 percent complete.

The macro environment is also a burden. As war tensions between the United States and Iran rise again, volatility risks have increased across risk assets. Iran’s foreign minister warned that the nuclear dispute could reach an unsolvable level, and U.S. President Donald Trump urged adding Iran to a Russia sanctions bill. In the fallout, global oil prices jumped at the weekly open, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising above $80 a barrel to its highest in five weeks.

This week also includes earnings releases scheduled from Tesla, Alphabet and Intel. If volatility in tech stocks increases, short-term shocks could spread to the crypto market. U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected, but the market is still pricing in the possibility of a 0.25 percentage point rate increase at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

On the supply-demand side, weak spot demand is cited as the biggest constraint. CryptoQuant analyzed that the rise in Bitcoin supply seen in early July has already been absorbed. Analyst ScenarioX said Bitcoin’s 30-day spot demand recovered to about -80,000 BTC in early July, then worsened again to about -170,000 BTC.

Derivatives-market demand was cited as a reason prices have been relatively stable. Fund flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also provided some buffer, posting net inflows on 4 of last week’s 5 trading days.

Still, there was also a warning that such support may not last long. CryptoQuant judged that a rise that continues without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in large-scale long liquidations. It said there is room for additional upside while futures demand remains, but the foundation for the rise is weak.

On-chain indicators tied to miner profitability also suggest the possibility of forming a bottom. CryptoQuant explained that the Puell Multiple has been rebounding after hitting a macro low in early June, but drew a line at calling it a confirmed generational bottom.

TheChaseOnChain also said the lows in 2024 and 2026 were not price bottoms but bottoms in the Puell indicator. It said a strategy of waiting only for deeply undervalued zones below 0.5, as in the past, may no longer be valid.

Investor sentiment has recovered somewhat. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29 as of July 20, still in the fear zone, but rose to its highest level since early June. Market analysis firm Santiment assessed that after extended outflows in May and June, ETF demand is returning and trust in crypto is beginning to revive again.

Ultimately, this week’s key points for the Bitcoin market boil down to whether support in the $63,000 range holds and whether resistance around $68,500 is regained. Spot ETF inflows and derivatives demand are acting as short-term support, but Middle East geopolitical risk, a surge in oil prices, rate concerns and weak spot buying remain at the same time, leaving the durability of any rebound still to be confirmed.

Good morning! $BTC still holding above the previous range lows - looking more and more like a successful reclaim. Wouldn't surprise me if we see some further relief this week - towards 65-67k. Getting my weekly DCA in right away, before that happens. pic.twitter.com/9tDFPWS3mO