[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin briefly surged to around $72,700 after confirmation of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 8 (local time) that risk appetite across the broader cryptocurrency market revived as oil prices plunged below $100 a barrel.
Based on TradingView data, bitcoin rose in New York trading on April 8 from $67,274 to $72,760, up as much as 7.4 percent on the day. It was the first time since March 18 that bitcoin topped $72,000.
The immediate trigger was confirmation by U.S. President Donald Trump of a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. The agreement set as a condition the "full, immediate and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions grew, sending oil prices down first and spreading the impact to risk assets such as bitcoin.
Markets also saw short-position liquidations as a factor that amplified the rise. Bitcoin short positions liquidated over the past 24 hours totaled $214.8 million. Total short liquidations across the broader cryptocurrency market were $431.0 million, while total liquidations reached $610.0 million.
Oil prices also swung sharply. After surging to $110 to $118 a barrel on the fallout from the conflict, oil fell as much as 16 percent intraday from $110 to $92. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped to $90 a barrel before partly recovering to around $95.
Still, caution remains that this rebound may not immediately lead to a trend reversal. Analyst Mr Brondor said of bitcoin's rebound right after Trump's announcement: "Geopolitical issues move the crypto market faster than any technical analysis. Billions of dollars flowed back into the market on a single Trump post."
Trading firm QCP Capital also saw market structure as still fragile regardless of the size of the rebound. QCP Capital pointed to the conditional nature of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, damage that has already occurred to infrastructure, and the need for visible progress in talks scheduled for Friday. It said bearish factors remain for bitcoin's recovery and concerns are continuing that a bearish flag breakdown could repeat on the daily chart.
Caution over resistance levels is also being maintained. Cryptocurrency trader Jelle said, "Bitcoin bulls still have a lot of work to do," and said people should not get overly carried away by the recent rebound. The $72,000 to $76,000 range is being cited as a supply zone where sell orders are waiting.
Another analyst, Crypto Patel, also said, "Bitcoin regained $72,000, but selling pressure is waiting in this zone," adding, "It will take a break above $76,000 for the next direction to be decided."
In this situation, some market participants are also leaving open the possibility that bitcoin could fall further to retest the 200-week moving average and the realized price zone. They cite those levels as where past bear-market bottoms formed. This sharp rise was the result of easing geopolitical variables combined with large-scale short liquidations, but the market is viewing the durability of the rebound cautiously until it confirms whether key resistance levels are broken.
From the bearish point of view, $BTC bulls still have a lot of work to do. The argument for a bearish flag into key resistance remains strong. News pumps into resistance, easy to get euphoric... Sticking to my long-term plan; let's roll. pic.twitter.com/ZUnCZhDGFR