Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to recover the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical indicator, increasing warnings of further declines. Closing the week below that gauge is seen as a signal that market structure is tilting bearish.

According to blockchain outlet Cointelegraph on March 23 local time, bitcoin is trading around $71,000, but it failed to break above the 200-week EMA, around $68,300, over the weekend, limiting the rebound. It briefly rose to $76,000, but that has been raised as a possible short-term bull trap.

Markets are also weighed by repeated selling pressure at major price levels. Analysts say profit-taking emerges whenever the price reaches certain levels, weakening upward momentum. Some traders are outlining a further downside scenario, citing a recent breakdown from a rising wedge pattern.

Technical bearish signals are also piling up. Analyst Jelle (젤레) noted on X, formerly Twitter, that bitcoin broke down from a rising wedge over the weekend, and mentioned the possibility of further declines. He pointed to a key downside range between a local low of $65,500 and $59,930, recorded on Feb. 6.

On the downside, the $65,000 area is cited as a near-term baseline support, and a break below it could raise the possibility of a return to under $60,000. Some analysts also see room for a medium-term decline to the $46,000 area.

Another analyst, Stockmoney Lizards (스톡머니 리자드), highlighted that bitcoin has slipped back below the 50-day EMA, a short-term trend line, and assessed that the global macro environment has become more unstable than it was two weeks ago. He said the combination of those technical and macro factors could push the price back below $60,000.

Michael J. Kramer (마이클 J. 크레이머) laid out a stronger bearish scenario. He warned that bitcoin could fall further to the $46,000 area, and said the current market structure is increasing downside pressure.

On-chain data also offer an important clue. Large investors holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have an average purchase price of around $68,000, which overlaps with current price levels. Holding that range could contribute to market stability, but a break could increase downside pressure. By contrast, holders of 10 to 100 BTC have an average purchase price in the $46,000 range, which could act as a key support level in a full-scale downswing.

Market sentiment is also increasingly turning bearish. In prediction markets, odds are being heavily priced for bitcoin to fall to $55,000 or lower by 2026, and the chance of entering the $40,000 range is also being seen as significant.