Bitcoin rose nearly 25 percent in August and, for the first time since last year’s crypto winter began, moved above its 50-month moving average. Even after the sharp rebound, the market is also factoring in September’s seasonal weakness, interest-rate variables and resistance near $82,500.

On Sept. 1, local time, blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that Bitcoin traded around $77,500. As of that day, it was down about 1.3 percent. By August’s closing price, it posted the strongest August gain since 2017, but on the daily chart it has stalled below a resistance zone that has held since late August.

Market expectations still lean bullish. On Myriad Market, a prediction market operated by Decrypt parent company Dastan, the probability that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before slipping to $55,000 was priced at 77 percent. That suggests the recent rally is still supporting investor sentiment.

The rebound traces back to Aug. 19. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of long-term Treasury buybacks, boosting liquidity expectations and putting downward pressure on Treasury yields. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also presented a framework related to crypto investment contracts, adding a tailwind on the regulatory front.

Sentiment cooled somewhat after Jackson Hole. In his first Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said, "Inflation readings are more worrying than the labor market." In markets, the possibility of a rate hike resurfaced ahead of the Sept. 15 to 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bitcoin rose above $81,000 within a few days of the buyback announcement but later slid below $78,000.

Technically, short-term and long-term trends diverge. The daily relative strength index stands at 66.1, in bullish territory, but it is nearing 70, which is commonly seen as a profit-taking warning line. Meanwhile, the average directional index, which shows trend strength, is 43.7, well above 25, a level often used to indicate a trend has taken hold.

The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages remain in a bearish cross. With the 50-day line below the 200-day line, it is too early to say the long-term trend has fully turned bullish. That suggests prices have moved up first. The gap between the two lines is narrowing, leaving open the possibility of a bullish cross ahead.

Monthly charts show a bigger shift. From the second half of 2025 through July 2026, Bitcoin spent most of the period below its 50-month moving average and stayed in a downtrend. That pattern resembled the 2018 to 2019 bear market and the 2022 crypto winter marked by the Terra-Luna and FTX collapses. August’s large bullish monthly candle regained that average and cut off the "crypto winter signal."

That does not confirm a new bull market. The monthly relative strength index is 50.6, a neutral level. The monthly average directional index is 23.7, still below 25, a threshold for confirming a strong trend. Regaining the 50-month line is a meaningful change, but there is insufficient data to conclude it is a long-term upturn beyond a rebound.

Supply-demand conditions and the regulatory environment are supporting bullish arguments. The U.S. Treasury’s buyback program runs through the Nov. 4 redemption quarter, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows throughout August. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s rulemaking process for crypto is also continuing. With daily trend indicators improving, expectations are also emerging that trend-following funds could return.

September is seen as Bitcoin’s weakest month. Since 2013, September has been the worst month of the year, and this year the burden has grown as Warsh’s hawkish remarks coincide with the Federal Open Market Committee schedule. The range the market needs to confirm is $81,455 to $82,538 on the upside and $73,670 to $75,157 on the downside. The August low of $68,858 remains an additional support level.