[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin has rebounded 26 percent from its mid-August low, returning market cycle indicators to a neutral range.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Wednesday that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the bitcoin market has recovered to 40, the boundary of the neutral zone, after spending a long period in a "cooling" range.

The immediate trigger for the rebound was cited as a large-scale short liquidation on Aug. 19. The rally was also supported by $2.23 billion of inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds over a week. Glassnode saw a structure in which ETF inflows underpinned a rebound sparked by short liquidations.

The recovery was also presented as being supported by renewed accumulation. The "30-day cumulative trend score" stayed at 0.5 or above, the neutral line, across all 6 wallet-size groups. That condition continued for 20 consecutive days from Aug. 5. It was an unusually long period of simultaneous accumulation across all groups, following 22 days in late 2024. Large wallets led the accumulation.

Resistance zones overlap on the upside. Glassnode viewed $81,000 to $86,000 as a key resistance band. Within that, $83,000 to $86,000 is an area where long-term holders' acquisition prices are concentrated, and whether selling emerges around break-even if prices reach that level is a key question.

The derivatives market also pointed to the possibility of higher volatility. In the options market, dealer gamma turns negative at $82,300. When gamma turns negative, market makers' hedging trades can more easily move in a direction that amplifies price swings. The middle 70 percent range for options expiring on Sept. 25 was about $69,000 to $89,700, and the midpoint was only a few hundred dollars away from the current spot price.

A short-term inflection point was also presented. Glassnode said that if bitcoin forms a closing price above $83,300 while ETF inflows continue, it could be a sign that selling pressure is being absorbed. It pointed to $70,000, the average purchase price of short-term holders, as the level where weakness may first appear.

Downside risk levels lie lower. If the price falls back to $62,900, the starting point of this short-liquidation rally, the recent uptrend could be seen as effectively unwound. The market is expected to watch for the continuation of ETF inflows, a break above the $83,000 range and support at $70,000 for the time being.