An analysis says bitcoin's rebound was underpinned not by speculative leverage but by cash inflows topping $2 billion.

On Aug. 27, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed $2.23 billion during a recent sharp rise in bitcoin, with no net outflows on any day in the period.

The U.S. July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was measured at 3.7 percent for the headline rate and 3.3 percent for the core rate as of Aug. 26, both above the Federal Reserve's target. The futures market priced in the chance of a September rate increase at about 44 percent, up from 36 percent. Bitcoin rose as high as $79,251.60 intraday that day and then traded around $78,000.

Still, the market focused more on fund flows and positioning than on the inflation data itself. Ryan Lee (라이언 리), chief analyst at Bitget Research (비트겟리서치), said policy uncertainty was not resolved just because core PCE matched expectations, calling it "as if the existing policy debate has largely stayed intact." He said bitcoin's price direction for the time being would be driven by ETF inflows, spot liquidity and derivatives positioning.

Supply and demand indicators are also tilting toward a cash-driven rebound. Glassnode said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest seven-day inflow pace so far in 2026 during the initial surge. Farside Investors data showed $314.30 million came in on Aug. 25 alone, including $284.40 million concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT. Net inflows from Aug. 17 to Aug. 25 totalled about $2.6 billion. Bitcoin was accumulated simultaneously across wallet sizes, from small holders to large addresses. Short-position liquidations, by contrast, were only a catalyst for the surge and did not explain the entire rebound.

Short covering occurred, but leverage fell instead.

On Aug. 19, the largest single-day dollar-denominated liquidation since 2019 occurred, according to Glassnode, and about 85 percent of liquidations in that stretch came from short positions. Even so, bitcoin futures open interest fell 11 percent during the rise. Funding rates were close to neutral, and liquidated shorts were not quickly replaced by new speculative longs.

An assessment also said the macro environment did not act only as a headwind for bitcoin. Fabian Dory (파비안 도리), chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank (시그넘은행), said this core PCE reading, in a situation where strong services activity and weak employment appeared at the same time, shows "gradual disinflation rather than a demand shock." He said liquidity channels such as Treasury cash balances, eSLR, private credit creation and stablecoin expansion could be maintained even without a shift in monetary policy.

Stablecoin supply also increased. The total stablecoin market capitalisation rose by about $2.8 billion over the past week to about $303.7 billion. NYDIG data showed stablecoin supply increased by $1.25 billion during the rebound, with most of the increase coming from USDC. It was read as a sign that liquidity on trading platforms improved faster than broader participation overseas.

$81,000 to $86,000 seen as next key battleground.

The next inflection point was put at $81,000 to $86,000. The range overlaps with the average acquisition price of self-custodied holdings, a dealer gamma flip point near $82,300, the prior short-liquidation zone and the supply overhang held by long-term investors. Glassnode judged bitcoin would need to hold above $83,300 and see continued ETF inflows to be seen as a full breakout. If it falls below $70,000, the average acquisition price of short-term holders, $62,000 to $65,000 is cited as the next support zone.

Near-term variables also remain. Deribit (데리비트) bitcoin options expiring on Aug. 28 total about 81,700 contracts, worth $6.44 billion. Call options at 44,639 contracts outnumber put options at 37,061 contracts, with positions concentrated at the $75,000 and $80,000 strikes. Martin Lee (마틴 리), head of market insights at DWF Labs (DWF랩스), said "traders have started paying up for near-term upside," adding that inflation data in line with expectations could extend last week's optimism.

For bitcoin to extend the rebound, spot buying needs to be confirmed again in a period when the options expiry overlaps with the Jackson Hole event. If ETF inflows are maintained, funding rates stay stable and closes above $83,300 continue, the $81,000 to $86,000 range could shift from resistance into an absorbed supply zone. If accumulation strength across wallets weakens and ETF flows turn to net outflows, the rise could be interpreted as a delayed profit-taking phase rather than a recovery based on cash inflows.