An analysis said Strategy’s bitcoin accumulation strategy is more heavily influenced by access to capital markets than by the bitcoin price.

Cointelegraph reported on Monday that Strategy bears about $1.76 billion a year in dividend and interest costs. It said that if new fundraising is blocked, the company could struggle to cover those costs without selling bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency analytics platform Lezim Intelligence pointed to structural risks embedded in Strategy’s holdings of 844,447 bitcoin. It said the assets are entangled with about $22 billion in debt and preferred stock claims, meaning the company must keep raising funds in capital markets to maintain its bitcoin-buying model.

Lezim said Strategy’s debt structure differs from typical bitcoin-collateralised margin loans. It said there are no margin calls linked to bitcoin price declines, meaning it is not a structure that forces immediate liquidation even if prices fall. It also said its stress test showed that bitcoin would have to fall about 96 percent before Strategy reaches a level at which it cannot cover its convertible bonds with its bitcoin holdings and liquid assets.

But preferred dividends and interest must continue to be paid regardless of the bitcoin price. Lezim Intelligence analyst Sherif Saad (셰리프 사드) said continuing to raise funding to cover annual debt and preferred stock costs is Strategy’s core task.

It said indicators investors should watch include preferred share prices and liquid assets. It said Strategy’s liquid assets are currently about 2.6 times its annual costs. It said that if fundraising conditions worsen, the bitcoin accumulation strategy could be shaken, and Strategy may rely more on liquid assets or may have to sell bitcoin to pay dividends and interest.

Saad said the problem becomes more serious if Strategy’s share price and its modified net asset value (mNAV) premium fall together during a prolonged bitcoin downturn. "If a simultaneous decline occurs, fundraising will inevitably become more difficult," he said.

A recent rebound in bitcoin has lifted the value of Strategy’s bitcoin holdings to $66.7 billion. That is above the company’s average purchase cost basis of $63.36 billion. It is superficially an unrealised profit zone, but the key point of the analysis is that, operationally, keeping funding channels open matters more than price.

The market has been watching how much Strategy will actually use the bitcoin on its balance sheet. In particular, because Michael Saylor has stressed a stance of "never sell" for years, Strategy’s move to begin selling bitcoin this year to meet other business obligations drew significant attention.

Even so, the company maintains that its bitcoin accumulation stance has not been reversed. Strategy CEO Phong Le (퐁 레) said it accumulated about 25 times more bitcoin than the amount it sold this year. He also said the company plans to resume bitcoin purchases in the second half of this year.

As a result, the key point to watch going forward is less the bitcoin price itself than how steadily Strategy can raise funds in capital markets. Even if the value of its holdings holds up, if its share price and funding conditions are shaken at the same time, the bitcoin accumulation model could shift into a phase in which selling takes priority over buying.