Bitcoin rebounds to around $66,000 after confirming support at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), but the market is still putting more weight on a renewed decline than on further gains.

On July 22, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that bitcoin had recently slid to the $53,000 to $54,000 range before trading around $66,000. On daily charts, a dead cross remains in place, with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day line.

The key to the short-term rebound is that the 200-day EMA acted as support. On July 22, bitcoin opened at $66,520 and rose to $66,698 before falling to $65,488, but it held support around $65,000. Buying interest around the 200-day line, used to gauge longer-term trends, is read as a sign that lower-end demand is still alive.

The technical structure has not fully turned. The dead cross, with the 50-day line below the 200-day line, continues, and the average directional index (ADX), which shows trend strength, stood at 19.5. Generally, readings below 25 are interpreted as a lack of a clear trend.

By contrast, the relative strength index (RSI) at 59.9 sent a relatively positive signal. It is above the neutral level of 50 but below the overheated zone of 70, leading to the view that there is still room for further gains. It means the latest rebound has not reached an automatic sell zone driven by overbought conditions.

Market sentiment remains cautious. On prediction market Myriad, 64.6 percent of traders saw bitcoin hitting $55,000 before rising to $84,000. In the near term, it reflected a 19 percent probability of breaking above $68,000 by July 26, and it rated the question of holding the $66,000 level as effectively too close to call.

This bearish view is also seen in spot supply-demand indicators. The Coinbase premium index, used to gauge U.S. institutional demand, has stayed in negative territory since May. The index shows whether U.S. institutional investors are paying higher prices than global retail investors, and a prolonged negative reading suggests there is no active accumulation.

There is also an upside scenario. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, before the Aug. 7 recess, saying legislation is imminent. His comment that the bill, which could resolve jurisdictional clashes between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is nearing the final stage of the legislative process is a factor lifting expectations for reduced regulatory uncertainty.

U.S. stocks were mixed ahead of earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, and the crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 33, indicating a cautious stance close to a fear phase. It is not at panic levels, but it also suggests aggressive risk appetite has not been confirmed.

The bitcoin market can be summed up as a phase in which rebound signals clash with a bearish structure. Bulls are leaning on support at the 200-day line, an RSI above 50 and expectations for passage of the Clarity Act. Some forecasts say bitcoin could gain momentum toward $70,000 if a Senate vote proceeds favorably. Bernstein analysts kept their $150,000 year-end target but called it an "ambitious target" given the market correction phase.

Bears, on the other hand, have more grounds. The dead cross has not been resolved, and the ADX shows the rebound is not strong. A negative Coinbase premium flow that has lasted more than 900 hours also suggests institutional money is not coming in actively.

This rebound again showed that the 200-day EMA still functions as a long-term support line. But with institutional flows and trend indicators weak, the market is taking a stricter view of the rebound's sustainability than of the rebound itself.