An analysis said net stablecoin outflows from exchanges have continued for 35 straight days, indicating weak demand to buy bitcoin.

CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported on July 21 that analyst Axel Adler Jr. (액셀 아들러 주니어) said in a morning brief that two indicators showing exchange fund flows are simultaneously pointing to weak demand signals.

Bitcoin moved around $65,000 on July 21, but the key point of the analysis is that exchange supply and demand are not as resilient as the price trend. Adler checked the supply-demand balance through net inflows and outflows of bitcoin and stablecoins moving in and out of exchanges. He saw both indicators tilted to the bearish side as of July 21.

Bitcoin's 30-day net inflow and outflow hovered near the baseline and recently tilted somewhat toward net inflows. Adler pointed out that large-scale outflows seen at price bottoms in 2023 and 2024, or an accumulation phase, are not confirmed on recent charts. He explained that the absence of strong outflows means large-scale accumulation is not taking place.

As a result, the bitcoin supply remaining on exchanges is still interpreted as being available to sell. Adler judged that until bitcoin net inflows and outflows shift into a sustained outflow section, it is hard to view it as a factor improving supply and demand.

Stablecoin flows were weaker. The 30-day moving average net inflow and outflow of stablecoins on exchanges stayed in negative territory for a long period and recently fell to below minus $100 million. Adler saw this as a signal that buyer-side funds are continuing to leave exchanges.

It was also stressed that the lack of stablecoin inflows leads to a shortage of funds to buy bitcoin. Adler saw that without stablecoin inflows, funding supply to support bitcoin demand does not enter the market. He also assessed that until this indicator recovers to above 0, moves to test the upper end could keep running into a shortage of funds.

The explanation is that bitcoin and stablecoin indicators point to the same conclusion. Bitcoin has not entered an accumulation stage by moving out of exchanges, and stablecoin outflows are continuing. That means even if it holds the $65,000 level, there is insufficient buying demand to support a sustained rise.

A key point to watch ahead is whether stablecoin funds return. Adler saw a recovery in stablecoin net flows to above 0 as the most important improvement signal. Conversely, he warned that if additional outflows below minus $100 million continue, downward pressure could increase further.

In this situation, the market is likely to react more sensitively to changes in exchange fund flows than to the price itself. The analysis said that even if the bitcoin spot price holds a certain range, it is hard to see it as a rebound signal in supply and demand unless both bitcoin movements in and out of exchanges and stablecoin inflows improve together.