Large call option positions targeting bitcoin at $70,000 and $72,000 have formed ahead of a late-July expiry.

According to blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate on July 20, Deribit’s options board for July 31 expiry shows more than 20,000 open call contracts at each of the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices.

Based on Deribit tallies, open interest gathered at about 27,000 contracts for the $70,000 strike and about 21,000 contracts for the $72,000 strike. Bitcoin’s spot price at the time was around $64,289, putting $70,000 about 8.9 percent above spot.

Jean-David Pequignot (장데이비드 페키뇨), Deribit’s chief business officer, said there was a large block trade that bought 20,000 $70,000 calls and sold the same number of 20,000 $72,000 calls. This structure is a bull call spread setting the upside range at $70,000 to $72,000. Profit starts to accrue once bitcoin moves above $70,000, and the trade reaches its maximum profit zone at $72,000 and above. The two positions’ combined notional size is estimated at about $2.5 billion.

This figure differs from the premium paid, actual capital deployed or net exposure. Because the composition of counterparties and other hedging trades are not disclosed, the market can only confirm that the structure has a short maturity and a capped upside payoff.

The position is drawing attention because of its expiry timing. The options expire on July 31, just after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed’s next policy decision is scheduled for July 29. The structure concentrates short-term bets on whether bitcoin can be pushed into the $70,000 range immediately after the Fed event.

But bitcoin faces significant hurdles to enter that range. Recent buying and selling has been concentrated around $69,000, and on-chain analysis also presents that level as a zone testing the average cost basis of recent buyers. If demand weakens, $52,891 was cited as a lower stress boundary. That figure is a reference point that changes as coins move.

Prediction market figures also show short-term upside expectations remain limited. As of July 20, the probability that bitcoin touches $70,000 at least once in July was priced at 14.5 percent, and $72,500 at 4.1 percent. The probability for $67,500 was 34.5 percent, while the probability of a downside touch of $62,500 was 67.4 percent. The indicator differs from the options expiry payoff structure, but is read as a reference for gauging broader market expectations.

Spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are also a variable. Bitcoin spot ETFs posted net inflows of $197 million from July 6 to 10 and $75 million from July 13 to 17, bringing a two-week total of $272 million. But there was also a session when $424 million flowed out in a single day. If ETF buying is sustained, it could support a break above the $69,000 to $70,000 range, but if inflows falter, the options position may remain a standalone tactical trade.

Medium- to long-term views remain mixed. Digital asset financial services company NYDIG said that, considering the scale and duration of the previous two major cycle pullbacks, it sees a possible bottom of $38,000 to $39,000 in early October. Coinbase Institutional cited $58,000 to $59,000 as the first strong support zone, and said that if the higher support line breaks it sees, in order, $48,000 to $50,000, about $42,000, and $39,000 to $40,000.

Citi also cut its 12-month bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and presented a bearish scenario of $53,000 if a recession and ETF outflows continue. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, maintained its $100,000 target for end-2026, and Bernstein kept its $150,000 year-end forecast.

Ultimately, market attention in late July is focused on a shorter range than long-term targets. The outcome of the large options position is expected to hinge on whether bitcoin can rise 8.9 percent from current levels to reclaim $70,000 and absorb selling pressure around $69,000 even immediately after the Fed decision.