[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net inflows for a second straight week. But funds recovered over the past two weeks amounted to just 3.3 percent of the $8.2 billion that left in the preceding eight weeks, prompting an assessment that it is too early to say flows have decisively turned.

On July 20 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that 13 U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $75.7 million in the week ended July 17.

Including the prior week’s net inflows of $197.4 million, cumulative net inflows over the past two weeks totalled $273.1 million. It was the first time since early May that bitcoin spot ETFs posted gains for two consecutive weeks. But from mid-May to early July, net outflows continued for eight straight weeks, with outflows topping $8.2 billion. June outflows totalled about $4.5 billion, the largest monthly figure since the products launched in January 2024.

Despite weekly net inflows, volatility remained. On July 14, $424.7 million flowed out in a single day, the biggest daily net outflow since June 26. The market wobbled as military tensions between the United States and Iran flared again, and funds flowed back in over the next four days, ending the week in positive territory.

Bitcoin spot ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to bitcoin through stock-market products without managing a crypto wallet directly. After their launch in early 2024, they quickly expanded amid expectations of large inflows, but investor departures have continued during the recent weak patch in the market.

Views in the market are mixed on whether the rebound should be seen as only a short-term recovery or a signal of a shift in the medium- to long-term trend. Eric Balchunas (에릭 발추나스), a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, on July 17 laid out a framework comparing bitcoin spot ETF flows with the history of gold ETFs. He saw a similar structure in that both gold and bitcoin are “non-yielding stores of value” with no dividends, profits or government guarantees. Prices are ultimately heavily influenced by investment demand and sentiment.

Balchunas wrote that bitcoin spot ETFs could follow the same path of “explosive rise, painful correction, and a recovery that tests investors’ patience”. He cited that GLD, a leading gold spot ETF, once became the world’s largest ETF but then struggled for eight years.

He pointed to a similar pattern in BlackRock’s bitcoin spot ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). IBIT briefly topped $10 billion in assets under management in October last year, nearly coinciding with a time when bitcoin’s price was above $126,000. The price later slid to about half that level, and bitcoin is now trading around $65,000.

Outflow pressure also led to a decline in actual holdings. BlackRock sold about 100,000 bitcoin in recent months to meet redemptions, and the amount it manages has fallen to just above 733,000 bitcoin.

Citigroup, by contrast, offered a more conservative outlook. On July 1, Citigroup cut its 12-month bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, and revised its 2027 ETF net inflow forecast to zero from $10 billion. The move reflected weak fund flows, stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weakening institutional demand.

The overall market has also shrunk. Total net assets at the 13 U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs now stand at $77.7 billion, down from more than $106 billion recorded just before outflows began in mid-May. As a result, two straight weeks of net inflows are a meaningful signal, but the market still appears to be watching more closely for the durability of fund recovery and whether institutional demand returns.

Bitcoin ETFs Likely to Mirror Gold's History of Triumph and Pain.. New from me on how gold ETFs' 22-year history may offer the closest roadmap yet for Bitcoin ETF investors. Both are wrappers around non-yielding stores of value that generate no cash flow, leaving investor… pic.twitter.com/3C4tZYPLCp