[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin has regained the $65,000 level recently and shown relative strength even during a correction phase in U.S. technology shares.
Cointelegraph reported on July 20 (local time) that bitcoin did not break above $65,500 last week. Even as profit-taking continued in semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, bitcoin showed a different pattern from traditional markets.
Market attention is focused on whether bitcoin has started moving independently of weakness in technology shares. Nasdaq 100 index futures, which are heavy in technology stocks, fell below 28,800 on July 18 for the first time in 5 weeks. Bitcoin held firm over the weekend and moved back above $65,000 on July 20.
Strategy’s cash build was cited as an external factor for the bitcoin spot market. Strategy secured $263 million in cash by selling common shares the previous week. As a result, concerns that additional selling pressure on bitcoin could grow have eased somewhat.
The market has viewed as a burden that Strategy must pay $1.76 billion a year in dividends to holders of perpetual equity with preferred stock-like characteristics, and that it also carries $2.6 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2028 and 2029. Strategy is seeking to increase its cash holdings to $3.22 billion to reduce uncertainty created by unrealised bitcoin losses on its balance sheet.
The derivatives market has not yet tilted strongly toward a rise. The annualised funding rate for bitcoin perpetual futures stood at 8 percent as of July 20, unchanged from a week earlier. The market typically interprets levels above 12 percent as strong demand for leveraged buying. Such a level has not appeared since July 10, suggesting top traders are not showing confidence in a full-fledged rally toward $70,000.
The options market sent a similar signal. The delta skew for 30-day bitcoin options was 13 percent on July 20. A neutral range is typically between minus 6 percent and 6 percent, showing that large investors and market makers remain cautious about exposure to downside risk.
Investment sentiment across risk assets is also turning conservative. As AI-related stocks including IBM, SanDisk, Oracle, ARM, SpaceX and Intel plunged, the yield on U.S. 5-year Treasuries rose. The 5-year yield rose to 4.33 percent on July 20 from 4.22 percent two weeks earlier. An interpretation emerged that risk-averse sentiment has strengthened as investors demanded higher yields to hold bonds.
Gold prices were no exception. Gold has been in a downtrend since mid-May. It suggests conditions have persisted in which it is difficult to view only a specific asset class as safe amid concerns about a global growth slowdown and continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
A geopolitical factor also added to the mix. U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 20 that he would retaliate against Iran over a missile attack in Jordan that killed U.S. troops. As risk assets broadly remained on edge, bitcoin’s rise to $65,500 was cited as a factor increasing expectations of decoupling from traditional financial markets.
The key is whether this trend can continue. Derivatives indicators have not yet turned clearly bullish, but the possibility remains that bitcoin could again stand out as a relatively strong asset if weak corporate earnings broaden. In particular, a view has been raised that weak earnings in the AI sector could become a catalyst for additional gains toward $70,000.