An analysis says XRP has entered a macro buy warning zone similar to bitcoin.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, said on July 17 that this is a signal that rarely appeared at the start of accumulation phases over several years. The market is watching whether the latest pullback is the start of a new downtrend or a bottoming phase before the next rebound.

XRP is trading around $1.09. It has rebounded somewhat from this cycle’s low recorded in late June. At the time, XRP at one point slid to $1.01, approaching the psychological support level of $1 for the first time in 19 months.

With this decline, XRP has fallen by more than half from its $3.6 peak recorded in the summer of 2025. The latest pullback was presented as closer to a normal correction than the start of a new bearish trend, with a pattern similar to the demand zone seen in July 2024.

After forming a key low at $0.3823 in July 2024, XRP went through a five-wave rise along with an increase in trading volume. It then climbed to $3.6 in July 2025 after breaking above key Fibonacci extension zones. The latest low, however, has not yet met all the signals that appeared at past major bottoms.

Some view the current pullback as closer to a normal retracement than the start of a new bear market, but confirmation signals seen at past major lows have not yet sufficiently emerged. To confirm a major bottom, a 1·2·3·4·5 impulse wave needs to be completed within about 4 weeks, and a closing price needs to be formed above key Fibonacci levels. Until such signals appear, it is hard to say XRP has already marked this cycle’s bottom.

Resistance is first cited around $1.18, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Above that is the 20-day exponential moving average around $1.22. About 22.8 million XRP are clustered at $1.18 to $1.19, and about 27.4 million XRP at $1.21 to $1.22, which could weigh on further gains.

On the downside, holding the $1 level is important. XRP is still holding above $1, but if it clearly breaks below that price, it could open the possibility of a further drop to $0.80. If it falls below the 0.5 Fibonacci level around $1.02, the market’s focus could shift to the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $0.87. This zone was presented as a stronger support area where the next major bottom could form.

In the market, an increase in trading volume over the coming weeks, a break above key Fibonacci levels and whether a five-wave rising structure is completed are seen as key confirmation indicators. Some analysts, including Casi and EGRAG Crypto, also see the possibility that XRP could form one more lower low before the correction ends. As a result, while XRP has entered a buy warning zone, the need for additional signals to confirm an actual bottom is expected to remain a key variable for the time being.