XRP could end a years-long weak trend versus bitcoin and break above a long-term resistance line, a market outlook said.

According to blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic on Sunday, the XRP/BTC trading pair is nearing the top of a downtrend line that has persisted since 2018. If a breakout is confirmed, XRP could significantly outperform bitcoin, it said.

XRP is currently consolidating below the long-term downtrend line. The resistance has continued to cap XRP rebounds since the 2018 peak. XRP was at $1.15, up 9 percent from last week’s low of $1.009. Over the same period, the XRP/BTC chart rose 2.7 percent, signaling XRP was relatively stronger than bitcoin during the recent recovery phase.

Market participants are focused on the long-term XRP/BTC chart. The pair is moving around 0.000018 BTC and testing the upper end of the multi-year downtrend line. Some also see the direction becoming clear soon as the pattern nears its endpoint on the chart.

The key question is whether it can reclaim resistance near the 2018 peak. If XRP/BTC returns to that level, calculations suggest the gain could exceed 1,040 percent. The scenario is that if the XRP/BTC ratio rises from about 0.00001807 to around 0.0001800, XRP could climb to around $13 when bitcoin posts its next all-time high.

The outlook also stirred expectations within the XRP community. One user asked what could drive XRP into double digits before bitcoin sets a new all-time high (ATH). The user focused on which would be the key catalyst among real-world utility, a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), regulatory clarity and retail investor demand.

A community figure, Celal Kucuker (셀랄 쿠추케르), argued that the price itself could be the strongest catalyst. He said if XRP starts making higher highs versus bitcoin, market sentiment could improve and that trend could draw additional buying. Other bullish factors could follow, but he said price action is likely to be the direct trigger for the initial rise.

Another market participant pointed out that XRP has traded for years below its 2018 valuation level versus bitcoin. He said such a long bearish period could ultimately end with a sharp breakout. Other users voiced similar views, saying prolonged compression in the market often leads to bigger volatility later.

Still, it is difficult to see this scenario materialising immediately. XRP remains around $1.15, and the broader market is also in a bearish phase, leaving uncertainties. As a result, a move above $10 could be tested in earnest in the next bull cycle rather than the current phase.