Samsung Electronics will announce preliminary results for the second quarter of 2026 on July 7. Forecasts vary. Brokerage estimates for operating profit range from 80 trillion won to 92 trillion won, a gap of about 12 trillion won. The difference stems from varying assumptions on how much to reflect provisions for performance bonuses in the semiconductor (DS) division. Where the preliminary figure lands is expected to set the direction for semiconductor stocks, which have recently swung sharply up and down.

By brokerage, Hana Securities gave the highest forecast, projecting revenue of 179 trillion won and operating profit of 92 trillion won. Kiwoom Securities forecast 89 trillion won, Eugene Investment & Securities projected 83.1 trillion won, and iM Securities estimated 80 trillion won. Based on Hana Securities, operating profit would be up 1,850 percent from a year earlier. As surging memory prices lifted results, most of the dispersion in forecasts came from assumptions on bonus provisions.

iM Securities estimated memory operating profit for the second quarter at 79.2 trillion won. It attributed that to provisions for bonus payments for the first and second quarters being reflected at once. It said operating profit would have reached 94.9 trillion won without the provisions. Hana Securities said it reflected provisions for performance bonuses at about 10 percent of DS division operating profit for the second to fourth quarters starting with this forecast. Kiwoom Securities also expected the provision amount to be larger than previously estimated and lowered its operating profit forecast to 89 trillion won from 100 trillion won.

The price trend itself is a factor for higher forecasts. iM Securities, citing channel checks, said it analyzed that second-quarter DRAM average selling prices rose more than 40 percent and NAND ASP climbed to the mid-60 percent range. Kiwoom Securities estimated quarter-on-quarter price gains of 58 percent for commodity DRAM and 75 percent for NAND. Hana Securities analyzed that, amid a steady trend in server and PC DRAM, strong demand for low-power DRAM (LPDDR) used in Nvidia AI CPUs pushed price increases well above expectations.

High bandwidth memory (HBM) is also contributing to prices. Eugene Investment & Securities estimated Samsung Electronics recorded a favorable blended ASP due to early shipments of HBM4. It also suggested the timing could allow contracts on favorable price terms, as talks to finalize long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with major data center customers are concentrated in the third quarter. Kiwoom Securities, however, expected operating losses in the foundry and System LSI businesses to continue due to one-off costs and weak utilization in 8-inch processes, despite higher utilization in advanced processes.

Non-memory businesses are expected to struggle. Eugene Investment & Securities forecast operating profit in the MX/NW division would fall 71 percent from the previous quarter to 800 billion won due to cost burdens from rising memory prices.

Market reaction depends on how investors interpret the one-off factor of provisions. If the preliminary figure beats market expectations, semiconductor stocks could regain upward momentum. If it falls short due to the provisions, profit-taking built up after a sharp rise could weigh on the stocks. Kiwoom Securities said the difference is only the timing of when provisions are reflected, with little change to annual earnings forecasts, and judged the impact on the share price would be limited.

Third-quarter operating profit forecast at 114 trillion won... shareholder returns also a variable

Expectations for the second half are even higher. Kiwoom Securities presented a third-quarter operating profit forecast of 114 trillion won, in line with the market consensus of 110 trillion won. Eugene Investment & Securities said negotiations are under way to raise both commodity DRAM and NAND ASP by more than 20 percent from the previous quarter in the third quarter. iM Securities forecast that, while next year’s production growth rate in the DRAM industry slows to below 20 percent, big tech data center investment will continue, and the memory boom will last at least through 2027.

Reflecting that, iM Securities raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 360 trillion won from 340 trillion won. Eugene Investment & Securities projected 361.3 trillion won for this year and 589.4 trillion won for next year. Hana Securities said commodity DRAM prices are up about fourfold from the second half of last year, and said HBM price negotiations in 2027 that factor this in could lead to further upgrades to profit forecasts.

Kiwoom Securities pointed out that share price volatility could increase as momentum from rising market share in HBM4 and eSSD in the second half intersects with concerns about rising market share for Chinese memory makers. Brokerages’ target prices are 430,000 won at Kiwoom Securities, 480,000 won at Hana Securities and 560,000 won at Eugene Investment & Securities. Eugene Investment & Securities described the recent share price decline as a "correction within a bull market" and judged it a buying opportunity.