[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] An analysis said Bitcoin would need far larger capital inflows than in the past to resume a steep uptrend. With spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing continued outflows, the next bull market is increasingly likely to be shaped by long-term money from institutional balance sheets rather than retail-investor demand.

On July 6, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju (주기영) said Bitcoin has become a market where it is difficult to generate large price gains with small amounts of capital, as in early cycles.

Ju cited the relationship between realised market capitalisation growth and the rate of price increase. Realised market capitalisation values coins at the price they last moved on-chain and is used as an indicator of how much capital the network has absorbed. In the 2011 cycle, about $2.7 billion in net inflows was linked to a price gain of about 55,000 percent, but in the current cycle, even after absorbing about $697 billion, the gain was only about 689 percent. In 2011, about $5 million in new money could double the price, but in this cycle the amount has grown to about $101 billion.

The bull case for Bitcoin has not disappeared, but the nature of the demand needed has changed, the assessment said. Ju said Bitcoin would need to establish itself as a "core macro asset" to rise sharply again. He added that the market should no longer rely only on retail-led ETF trading.

Near-term conditions are not easy. Santiment data show spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $10 billion in outflows since early May, and 12 products have extended net outflows for 8 straight weeks. Bitcoin analytics platform Econometrics said, "Since May, fund flows have been sharply tilted to one side," and pointed out that attempts to restore buying momentum were immediately cut short. It said spot Bitcoin ETFs failed to extend consecutive inflows for more than 1 day, while outflows repeated over several days, leading to the longest outflow phase since launch.

ETF weakness also weighs on expectations that Bitcoin can quickly regain its previous record high. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 broadened the market by providing a regulated access route to advisers, hedge funds and traditional investors. But the recent trend shows expanded access alone is not enough. It means steady allocations will be needed from pools of capital that move more slowly but can deploy larger sums, including wealth management platforms, model portfolios, corporate treasuries, banks and insurers.

Institutional investment demand has not disappeared completely. A survey of 351 institutional decision-makers conducted by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon in January 2026 found about three quarters said they planned to increase their allocation to cryptocurrencies. About 74 percent expected cryptocurrency prices to rise over the next 12 months. However, 49 percent said they placed greater importance on risk management, liquidity and position sizing. Some 66 percent of respondents already had exposure via spot crypto ETFs or exchange-traded products (ETPs), and 81 percent preferred spot exposure through registered investment products.

The figures show regulated product structures are a key channel for the next stage of adoption, but they also highlight why ETF outflows are a burden. If ETFs are the main entry route for institutions, sustained weakness in those products can slow the broader allocation process. In the end, the calculation is that in a market as large as Bitcoin's, new buyers must be much larger than before, more consistent and less speculative.

Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), chairman of Strategy, argued that Bitcoin's next decade will be more heavily influenced by capital flows across financial markets than by mining issuance. "Bitcoin's trajectory will be driven more by money flows than by miner issuance," he said, citing ETF flows, corporate treasury money, sovereign reserve assets, bank credit, derivatives, insurance, collateral, structured credit and global savings flows. He said halvings tighten supply, but capital flows determine the growth path.

With Bitcoin's supply schedule and halving narrative already widely known, another view is that the next rerating depends on whether demand channels that can absorb a market worth more than $1 trillion actually expand. In that situation, Bitcoin must compete for the same capital as other Wall Street investments. This year in particular, artificial intelligence (AI)-related assets and infrastructure have absorbed large-scale investment interest, putting Bitcoin in competition with equities, private infrastructure, credit products, commodities and other macro trades.

Ultimately, the key to the next bull market is not simply the number of buyers, but more balance sheets. Bitcoin's growth to the point where it can enter mainstream asset-allocation discussions is a strength, but it also means it has entered a stage where it will be assessed by the same standards as other major uses of capital.

Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead. Yes, capital efficiency is declining. In 2011, just $2.7B in net capital inflows drove a 55,436% price increase. This cycle, $697B produced a +689% return. The next parabolic bull cycle likely requires deeper institutional… pic.twitter.com/PInBlG3GD3