Bitcoin hit its highest level in two weeks, and Bernstein kept its $150,000 year-end bitcoin forecast.

According to blockchain outlet Decrypt on July 6 (local time), bitcoin touched $63,900 intraday before rising to around $64,500. Its gain over the past week topped 6 percent.

The key point was not the price rebound itself but that the bullish outlook remained in place. Bernstein kept its year-end target at $150,000 even after bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) last October and then pulled back about 50 percent from that peak. Based on the current price, it would need to rise about 135 percent more by year-end.

Bernstein’s analysis team focused on changes in market structure. It said, "Crypto corrections are always painful, but this one actually brought some relief," adding, "The crypto market seems to be maturing. We remain optimistic about bitcoin’s long-term outlook."

By price action, bitcoin rose about 2 percent over the past 24 hours and its weekly gain was also above 6 percent. But most of the gains that had formed after Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. president have been given back over the past 8 months. Bernstein acknowledged the correction, saying, "A $150,000 target at end-2026 looks ambitious given market correction conditions," but added, "We think the bitcoin cycle will ultimately turn direction. We are watching for signs of recovery in fund flows."

The first factor Bernstein highlighted was regulation. The analysts pointed to Polymarket, saying the probability of passing the Clarity bill by year-end is about 50 percent. They judged that if the bill advances, market liquidity and institutional adoption could expand for both native crypto assets and blockchain versions of real-world assets.

On supply and demand, Bernstein saw a low likelihood of selling pressure from Strategy, led by Michael Saylor. Strategy sold $216 million worth of bitcoin last week to raise funds for dividends, and its dollar reserves increased to more than $2.55 billion. The market has cited the possibility of additional sales by large holders as a variable, but Bernstein assessed that it is unlikely the company will shift to net selling immediately.

Bernstein said, "Strategy maintains about 17 months’ worth of dollar reserves to cover dividends and interest costs, and board approval is required for that period to fall below 12 months." It added, "A large forced supply of bitcoin originating from Strategy is unlikely, and it appears set to continue a net buying stance in the market."

As a result, the market’s focus in this rebound phase is narrowing to regulatory clarity, conditions for institutional inflows and whether large holders’ supply-demand dynamics change, rather than the short-term price itself. For Bernstein’s outlook to hold, bitcoin’s price rebound will likely need to be accompanied by tangible signs of a recovery in fund flows.