[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP is holding above a key Fibonacci retracement zone at $1.00795, entering a major early-July turning point.

On July 3 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP has pulled back to a price range seen as the starting point of the rally in November 2024 and is being tested on whether it can hold on a weekly basis.

XRP is trading around $1.15. It started from about $1.05 in the second week of November 2024 and rose to $3.66 in July 2025, but gave back most of those gains over the following 11 months. In late June it fell to $1.009, testing the $1 level most strongly since November last year. The level of $1.00795 was presented as a zone that retraced the entire move from the low of this upcycle to the July 2025 peak.

Some near-term rebound signals have appeared. The first weekly candle in July rose 5.07 percent, and XRP touched a weekly high of $1.11 before edging down to around $1.09969. Still, it needs to hold above $1.00795 on a weekly closing basis to create a foundation for buyers to regroup. If that zone breaks, the possibility of reopening price levels below $1 has been raised.

On the downside, the $0.80 to $0.90 range was cited as a first line of defence. Below that, $0.66229 at the 1.13 extension and $0.28472 at the 1.272 extension were presented as the next support candidates. Those levels are 82 percent and 92 percent lower, respectively, than the July 2025 peak.

There is more resistance overhead. A downtrend line that began at the July 2025 peak has capped the top on each recent rebound attempt. XRP recently tested that trendline resistance, but a breakout has not been confirmed. A weekly close above the trendline would be the first signal of a structural change since the peak. If it fails to clear the trendline, the overall flow remains bearish.

Many key Fibonacci levels have already turned into resistance. The 0.382 level at $2.65117, the 0.618 level at $2.02366, the 0.786 level at $1.57696 and the 0.888 level at $1.30575 broke in sequence and shifted into overhead resistance. For the recovery phase to continue, XRP first needs to regain $1.30575, then rise to the $1.57696 zone.

The Ichimoku indicator is also a burden. The conversion line is at $1.27885 and the base line is at $1.71205, both well above the current price. The cloud spans broadly from $1.49545 to $2.33696. For XRP to return to a full recovery flow, it needs to break above the conversion line and base line in turn and then clear the top of the cloud.

Moving averages are also still above. XRP is below the 20-day exponential moving average of $1.11, the 50-day line of $1.20, the 100-day line of $1.31 and the 200-day line of $1.52. That makes it difficult to judge a trend reversal from a short-term rebound alone.

Fund flows provide some defensive logic. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net inflows for 8 straight weeks, and weekly inflows on June 26 totalled $22.99 million. Cumulative net inflows were tallied at $1.47 billion. Exchange outflows also increased from 40.7 million XRP on June 22 to about 123 million XRP in subsequent sessions. That suggests the possibility of accumulation by large investors.

Ultimately, the market's focus is on defending the $1 level and the weekly close. ETF inflows and rising exchange outflows remain grounds for downside support, but with the downtrend line, the Ichimoku cloud and key moving averages all stacked overhead, XRP appears to need to break through resistance zones step by step to extend a rebound.