$1.65 has been identified as a key price level that could shape XRP's medium- to long-term trend.

On July 3, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Egrag drew attention to XRP starting July below the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). He saw whether it breaks above that zone as something that could determine the direction of this cycle.

Egrag also said that, separate from any short-term rebound, caution is still needed on the medium- to long-term chart. He said as long as XRP remains below the 50-month SMA, what he called a "macro compression" phase continues, and a trend-change signal is confirmed only when it clearly rises above $1.65.

He then said that, based on past cycles, he sees a strong chance XRP goes through one more adjustment before a major rise. He explained that historically XRP has often entered its strongest rally after forming a final bottom near the 88-month SMA. If the same pattern repeats, XRP could test that area again before the next macro breakout.

Egrag put the highest likelihood on this scenario. He put the probability at 55 percent that XRP retests the 88-month SMA or dips briefly below it before entering the next expansion phase. He also left open the possibility that buying flows in quickly and XRP immediately regains the 50-month SMA. In that case, he put the probability at 30 percent and said XRP could follow a different path than before without returning to the 88-month line.

He put the least likely case at 15 percent. In that scenario, he said XRP loses support near the 88-month SMA and needs more time to build a new bullish structure. While laying out several possibilities, Egrag stressed that the most important resistance level does not change.

He called $1.65 XRP's "decisive macro resistance." He said that until the price clearly breaks above that level on the chart, the compression phase continues. He added that if it succeeds in regaining the 50-month SMA, it could be read as a signal of a bullish resumption.

He also presented upside targets on the premise of a break above $1.65. Egrag said that if XRP moves above that level, a macro expansion phase similar to past cycles could begin. In that case, the first major target price is $7.50. He also maintained $42 as a long-term measured target based on past-cycle analysis.

Egrag did not say the past will repeat exactly. While citing a final test of the 88-month SMA as the most likely scenario, he said the cycle could unfold differently from previous ones if XRP quickly regains the 50-month SMA. The price level the market needs to check immediately is $1.65, he added.

#XRP - The $1.65 Macro Gate : ️#XRP has opened July below the 50 SMA on the monthly timeframe. ️Historically, in Cycle 1 and Cycle 2, $XRP did bottom perfectly at the around 88 SMA. ️It went deeper and tested the 88 SMA zone before the real macro expansion started. ️So… pic.twitter.com/sbL1n66EYA