[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP is shown to have rebounded in the third quarter without exception in years when it fell in both the first and second quarters.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on July 3 that the pattern has been confirmed three times since XRP began trading in 2013, and that this year it is attempting a rebound in July after weakness in the first half.

XRP has yet to break out of a downtrend that has continued since October 2025. It is down 40.17 percent so far this year, but a rebound attempt in July is raising the possibility of a shift in the short-term trend. It fell 27.1 percent in the first quarter and 22.4 percent in the second. That extends weakness after a 35.4 percent plunge in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Similar moves appeared in 2014, 2018 and 2022. In 2014, XRP underwent a steep correction after a surge the previous year, falling about 68 percent in the first quarter and a further 57 percent in the second. It stayed weak throughout the first half, with -24.9 percent in January, -33.62 percent in February, -35.73 percent in March, -38.95 percent in April, -22.53 percent in May and -8.61 percent in June.

In July 2014, however, the market staged a relief rally even as the downtrend persisted, and XRP rose 36.73 percent over the month to $0.00519 from $0.00379. It edged lower in August and September, but finished the third quarter up 22.9 percent overall.

The pattern was similar in 2018 and 2022. In 2018, XRP suffered its biggest recorded decline, plunging 77.7 percent over three months after a peak of $3.31 in January. It rebounded 67 percent in April but then slipped again, leaving the second-quarter return at -9.1 percent. In the third quarter, it gained 73.6 percent in September to recoup weakness in July and August, for a quarterly rebound of 24.4 percent.

In 2022, the first-quarter decline was relatively limited at 2.14 percent, but the second-quarter drop widened to 59.4 percent due to the fallout from Terra's collapse. Even so, it rebounded 44.5 percent in the third quarter. The report pointed to the emergence of a recovery phase even though the bear market had not ended as a feature of that period.

This year, XRP is partly following the same pattern. An early rebound in July 2026 has put the third-quarter return at 6.05 percent. Market data tallied an average third-quarter gain of 17.3 percent for XRP since 2013. The third quarter is not the quarter with the highest average return, but it was also noted that recoveries were frequent, with only three years of declines over 13 years.

There is also a forecast that if the trend continues and XRP posts even around its average third-quarter gain of 17.3 percent, the end-of-quarter price could exceed $1.20. Still, even if a third-quarter rebound appears, there is no guarantee the uptrend will continue into the fourth quarter, leaving that as a variable.