[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP has recently shown a move forming a double-bottom pattern, but analysis says whether the trend reverses depends on breaking through the $1.28 to $1.29 zone.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, said on July 4 that the current area leaves room for a rebound, but it is hard to say the pattern is complete until a key resistance line is cleared.

XRP has faced downward pressure so far in 2026. Still, price action from early June to early July showed signs that selling eased. The key is $1.29, cited as the double-bottom neckline, and a reversal is confirmed only if it breaks above that level on a closing basis and holds.

This structure began in late May when XRP slipped below the $1.28 to $1.30 support zone. It then made its first low at $1.05 in early June. Trading volume was 281.77 million XRP on June 5 and rose to 141.36 million XRP on June 6.

XRP later rebounded to $1.29 on June 15, forming the neckline, but the upward move did not continue. As selling returned, it fell to as low as $1.0092 on June 26, marking the second low. The fact that the second low was slightly below the first suggests the possibility of a bear trap in some areas.

Trading volume also partly supports that move. Volume on June 26 was 145.00 million XRP, but it was lower than during the sharp early-June drop. Falling volume despite a lower price can signal that selling pressure may be weakening.

Still, confidence in the rebound is not yet sufficient. Current volume is only about 30 percent of the level recorded on June 5.

A short-term recovery emerged in July. XRP broke upward out of a $1.02 to $1.07 range on July 1, then rose for three straight sessions to $1.1385. Volume on the breakout day rose to 87.97 million XRP from 66.00 million XRP the previous day, and later stayed above 84.00 million XRP. Even so, the strength is weaker than the heavy trading seen during the initial plunge.

On flows, some supportive signals were also seen. Inflows continued into spot XRP exchange-traded funds, with cumulative inflows estimated at about $1.47 billion. Exchange outflows also rose from 40.70 million XRP on June 22 to about 123.00 million XRP. But those moves have not yet been clearly reflected in price momentum.

In the short term, it must clear multiple resistance zones before reaching the neckline. The first resistance is cited at $1.17, the 44-day moving average. Above that is around $1.18, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Holder supply is also concentrated in this area. About 22.80 million XRP is concentrated between $1.18 and $1.19, and about 27.40 million XRP between $1.21 and $1.22. Investors entering break-even territory may be inclined to sell.

If it succeeds in breaking above, the next target price is cited at $1.57. That is the neckline plus the pattern depth of $0.28. That level is also close to the previous high of $1.5496 recorded on May 14. That peak later acted as a strong resistance line before the decline.

Still, the medium-term trend remains in bearish territory. XRP has not yet escaped the broader downtrend that began after it rose above $3.50 in 2025. The current double-bottom area is only an early signal showing the possibility of a reversal, and the market will likely first need to confirm a break above $1.28 to $1.29 and whether it can settle there.