Analysis has emerged that XRP is again approaching a key support zone on long-term technical indicators.

On July 4 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that analyst ChartNerd assessed that, after a recent drop, XRP is moving back toward the upper regression line of a three-month Gaussian channel.

ChartNerd viewed the area as not just a technical level, but one that has repeated across multiple market cycles over the past decade. He said XRP moved into strong upswings after testing the same indicator in 2017, 2020 and 2023, and a similar flow could be repeated in 2026.

The upper regression line is currently near $0.86. Because the Gaussian channel is a dynamic indicator that moves over time, that price level could gradually rise. ChartNerd noted that XRP did not always rebound immediately exactly at that line in the past. In some cycles, it briefly fell below the area before recovering and entering a sustained uptrend.

The analysis is set against the backdrop of the recent decline. XRP fell to $1.0098 in June 2026 after recording $3.65 in July 2025. Over about 11 to 12 months, the decline rate exceeded 72 percent. ChartNerd said such a sharp drop resembles corrections that appeared ahead of strong rebounds in the past, rather than a signal of fear. He added that XRP also went through a rebound phase after falling 96 percent following a 2018 peak.

He did not conclude that the market would immediately enter a trend reversal. ChartNerd said Heikin Ashi candles are continuing to form large bearish bars without upper wicks, which he explained is generally a signal that selling pressure is persisting. He said a short-term relief rally could occur, but in the larger move the downtrend could continue until the market forms a clear bottom.

ChartNerd called the area a "noteworthy technical convergence." He said downside momentum remains, but long-term support is also nearing, making it a potentially important turning point from a medium- to long-term buying perspective. He also said the market has moved closer to a "generational entry point" and judged that downside risk for investors buying now may have fallen compared with before.

The market price has rebounded in the short term. XRP has risen about 11 percent over the past week. It is down 0.57 percent over 24 hours, and it has not yet been confirmed whether the rebound will lead to a medium- to long-term trend reversal.

ChartNerd drew a line by saying no technical indicator can predict future prices with certainty. He also stressed that while past patterns may repeat, there is no guarantee they will be reproduced in the same way this time.

The core of the analysis is that short-term weakness and an approach toward a long-term support zone are appearing at the same time. It is notable that it compared past cycles with the current position using the same indicator while also pointing out the limits of technical signals.

Nothing is "broken" with $XRP. Despite this 73% drawdown, which is historically a natural part of cycle process, macro structure remains intact; while supressed, we must simply respect the trend at play until the end. No need to overcomplicate things. Thank you @MoonLamboio pic.twitter.com/mERJYXXhrJ