Prospects for passage of the Clarity Act, a key U.S. cryptocurrency bill, are rising again. As opposition from law enforcement groups has eased somewhat, expectations around a Senate vote are also resurfacing.

On July 5, foreign media including blockchain outlets U.Today and Cointelegraph reported that prediction market Polymarket is currently pricing the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law at 55 percent. That is a rebound from a level that had fallen below 40 percent a few days earlier.

The rebound is linked to a change in stance by law enforcement groups. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) last week formally backed the Clarity Act. It is the first time a major law enforcement organization has publicly supported the bill. Some law enforcement groups had warned the Clarity Act could create loopholes that could be exploited for illicit finance, but NOBLE saw the bill as not changing existing federal criminal authorities that investigators and prosecutors use daily.

The Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA) also withdrew its earlier opposition and returned to a neutral position. In a letter sent to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, MCSA said it had adjusted its stance on the Clarity Act to neutral.

In a letter dated May 14, MCSA had raised concerns about Section 604 of the bill. The provision is connected to language that protects developers from liability related to illegal acts by users of decentralised platforms. MCSA had argued the provision could be exploited by criminals and could make cryptocurrency crime investigations more difficult.

MCSA has not withdrawn its request for changes to the bill. The association demanded that state law enforcement agencies be included in Section 309, which calls for the Treasury Department to study decentralised finance (DeFi) and illicit finance risks. Bob Gualtieri (밥 구알티에리), MCSA chairman, argued that digital asset-based crimes linked to fraud, drug trafficking, ransomware, child exploitation and terrorist financing are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and that Congress should provide training, technology and resources to local investigative agencies.

Despite the shift in tone from law enforcement groups, the legislative timetable remains tight. As of early July, the Clarity Act has yet to be brought up for a Senate floor vote. There was no vote by July 4 as initially expected, nor any meaningful progress.

Delays reflect differences within the Senate and competition with other legislative priorities. In the banking sector, there are calls to limit profits, citing concerns that stablecoin earnings could function like unregulated deposit products and trigger large-scale fund outflows from the existing banking system.

Industry calls for a vote are also continuing. More than 200 companies, including Coinbase, Ripple and Kraken, demanded a Senate vote. Ripple launched a mobile campaign related to the Clarity Act in Washington, and Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that if action is not taken now, the next opportunity may not come until 2030.

The next possible window for a Senate floor vote is being discussed as after lawmakers return from a recess on July 13. The final bill text could also be made public soon.

The Clarity Act is expanding into a political issue that links regulatory clarity, investigative authority and responses to illicit finance. Easing opposition from law enforcement groups is a positive signal for Senate deliberations, but with requests remaining on support for local investigative agencies and revisions to provisions, the final text and vote schedule are expected to be the next turning point.

NEWS: The Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA) has shifted to a “neutral” position on the Clarity Act after what it describes as “continued discussions in recent days regarding parts of Section 604,” aka the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. In a letter to Senate Banking… pic.twitter.com/24XIZTfWHR