XRP posted a weekly close below its 200-week moving average for the first time since its 2024 rally, confirming a long-term bearish trend.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on July 2 that XRP broke below its 200-week moving average, viewed as a key long-term support level, amid a downtrend that has continued since the fourth quarter of 2025.

XRP closed at $1.155 in the first week of June, while the 200-week moving average stood at $1.189. That marked its first weekly close below that level since the first week of November 2024. XRP is now around $1.0584, while the 200-week moving average has risen to $1.20, widening the gap between the price and the long-term trend line.

The 200-week moving average reflects about four years of weekly closing-price averages and is used as a gauge for long-term investors' profit-and-loss levels. If prices stay below it, it means many medium- to long-term holders are in unrealised loss territory. XRP has traded below the 200-week line for three straight weeks since the break and is approaching a fourth week.

The market is not viewing the zone as an immediate rebound signal. With the 200-week moving average shifting from support to resistance, selling pressure is likely to emerge if prices approach the line again, and even a short-term bounce could have limited upside.

Past price action was similar. During the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022, XRP posted a weekly close below the 200-week moving average for the first time in about a year. It stayed below the line for five weeks and then slid to $0.28 in June 2022, marking a cycle low.

Even after forming a bottom, the trend did not reverse immediately. XRP began a clear uptrend in November 2024, more than two years after the low was set.

A similar case occurred in 2019. After an upswing, XRP fell below its 200-week moving average and stayed under it for five weeks, dropping to $0.22 in September 2019. It appeared to be a bottom, but the rebound did not last, and it later fell below the 200-week line again, sliding to $0.11 in March 2020. That decline was classified as an exceptional case as negative factors overlapped, including the COVID-19 shock.

XRP later recovered the 200-week moving average in January 2021 and climbed to $1.96 in April, showing a strong uptrend. Given those precedents, the current zone could still form a bottom within weeks. But past records also show that reaching a low did not immediately lead to a new bull market.

The market's focus, therefore, is whether XRP can reclaim the 200-week moving average even if it confirms a short-term low. If there is no external shock, a bottom could form relatively early as in 2022, but there are suggestions that a short-lived relief rally and a long period of sideways trading could come before a strong rebound.