XRP has rebounded or marked the starting point of an uptrend every July since 2020, data showed.

According to The Crypto Basic, XRP did not close lower on the July monthly candle during that period.

The pattern is drawing renewed attention because XRP has had steep losses recently. XRP closed lower in 8 of the 9 months since October 2025 and fell about 22 percent in June 2026. With market participants looking for signs of a short-term rebound, the July pattern is being mentioned again.

Past moves show a repeated pattern of XRP rebounding in July after weakness in June. In June 2020, XRP fell 13.55 percent, but surged more than 48 percent in July. It was the biggest monthly gain in nearly 2 years. It rose another 8.29 percent in August and, after an interim correction, climbed to $1.96 in April 2021.

A similar move continued in 2021. After plunging 34.77 percent in May and 32.3 percent in June, XRP rebounded 6.91 percent in July and rose 59 percent in August. The rise at the time was closer to a short-term relief rally than a trend reversal, and the decline resumed afterward.

In 2022, the shock from the collapse of the Terra ecosystem added to the pressure. XRP plunged 59 percent from April to June 2022, but recovered 14 percent in July. The rebound was also more of a relief move than a shift to a bull market, but XRP moved into a sideways range rather than suffering another steep drop.

From 2023 to 2025, the July gains carried greater significance. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres (아날리사 토레스) ruled in the Ripple case that XRP itself was not a security, rejecting part of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's argument. After the ruling, XRP surged 47 percent in July to around $0.94, and some legal uncertainty eased alongside the price rise.

XRP rose 31 percent in July 2024. It was the biggest monthly gain since the 47 percent rise in July 2023. The market took the rise as a sign of clearing a box range that had continued since July 2022 and a trend shift, and it was followed by a sharp jump in November 2024.

In 2025, after a sharp drop in February and a brief sideways stretch between $2 and $3, XRP rebounded in July. That rebound took XRP to its all-time high so far of $3.66, before it entered the current downturn.

Taken together, XRP has risen every July since 2020, with an average monthly gain of about 30 percent. The pattern is fueling expectations among market participants that a trend reversal or a relief rally could emerge again this July.

XRP is already up more than 2 percent in July, recovering from $1.03 to $1.07. If a rise close to the past average of about 30 percent appears again, some calculations suggest XRP could climb to $1.33 and regain the $1.30 level. Past moves offer no guarantee the pattern will repeat this month.

Ultimately, the key point to watch for XRP this July is whether the seasonal pattern can translate into actual buying. The repeated July rebounds since 2020 could support investor sentiment, but with the recent downtrend and broader market weakness continuing, it is hard to conclude a trend reversal based on a simple statistical pattern alone. Whether XRP can regain $1.30 and establish it as a support level is expected to determine whether the short-term rebound can last.